Following Iran’s continued targeting of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, on 08 July President Trump declared an end to the ceasefire with Iran. The move came after United States (U.S.) forces struck Iranian coastal sites involved in the attacks on shipping. Since then, the U.S. conducted a second and larger wave of strikes on Iran, spurring a wider Iranian response. United States Central Command (CENTCOM) claims to have struck over 170 Iranian targets in the last 48 hours. The region has returned to a “no war, no peace” paradigm, with the potential to spiral back into full conflict.
- Airspace in the Gulf remains open, despite brief closures in Kuwait and Qatar. Major flight delays are being reported throughout the region.
- Confirmed Strait of Hormuz crossings are quickly falling: 49 on 07 July to 25 on 08 July, with only 5 overnight crossings on 08–09 July.
The second round of U.S. strikes overnight on 08–09 July greatly expanded the scope of targeting, signaling a willingness to gradually escalate the current exchange. While U.S. strikes overnight on 07–08 July only targeted air-defense systems, command-and-control networks, and missile and drone launch sites along Iran’s coastline, the 08–09 July strikes also targeted infrastructure. The U.S. struck a railway bridge in Golestan province that connects Iran to China, and reportedly struck electrical infrastructure in Chabahar and Konarak in south-east Iran.
Iran also expanded its targeting overnight, targeting U.S. facilities in Jordan, Iraq, and Qatar for the first time in months.
A return to full-scale conflict is still not the most likely scenario. The Trump administration remains constrained by domestic and global economic concerns. However, it is unlikely that air and naval power alone will defeat Iran’s ability to threaten shipping in the Strait. There is a real risk that the limited campaign to protect shipping spirals into a broader conflict. Escalation indicators include:
- U.S. or Iranian strikes on civilian infrastructure (power plants, commercial ports, oil and gas facilities, etc.).
- The inclusion of Israel in direct hostilities with Iran.
- The reinstatement of a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports.
- The Houthis initiating attacks on Red Sea shipping.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with the following:
- Evacuation planning and execution
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Risk assessments
Click below to contact Global Guardian's 24/7 Operations Center or call us directly at +1 (703) 566-9463.
