Following the launch of Operation Epic Fury by the U.S. and Operation Lion's Roar by Israel, Iran retaliated across the region by launching medium and short-range ballistic missiles and Shahed drones at U.S. bases in Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Bahrain. Most projectiles were intercepted. There were multiple instances of falling debris from intercepted missiles striking buildings, landing on people, and catching buildings on fire. In Bahrain, a high-rise building was struck by a Shahed drone, possibly by accident or due to signal jamming. A similar incident happened in Dubai when the parking/entrance area of the Palm Hotel was hit by a Shahed drone, leading to multiple injuries but no fatalities. These types of attacks will continue across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed during earlier strikes. This has not been confirmed by Iran, but there has been no visual or audio evidence produced by Iran that he is still alive. Additional reports suggest members of his family were also killed. It is likely that Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, is now in charge.
ONGOING RECOMMENDATIONS
- Abide by local guidance regarding shelter-in-place orders in Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.
- If in Israel, remain near bomb shelters and take immediate action at the sound of sirens.
- Be prepared for ongoing major airspace disruptions.
TACTICAL UPDATE
- Israel claims to have carried out hundreds of strikes on hundreds of targets across Iran. Unconfirmed reports suggest Iran's Minister of Defense and IRGC Commander were both killed today during the initial wave of strikes.
- Israel has said the campaign could last a week while U.S. officials say it could last several days.
- Iranian missiles and drones have primarily targeted:
- Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
- Ali Al Salem (Al‑Salem) Air Base in Kuwait.
- Al Dhafra Air Base near Abu Dhabi in the UAE.
- The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain, where video footage captured a Shahed drone impacting a communications array.
- Missile and drone interceptions were also reported in Saudi Arabia.
- Israel continues to be targeted by Iran as air raid sirens have been heard in Tel-Aviv, Haifa, and the northern parts of the country.
- Kuwait's International Airport was hit by a Shahed drone, causing significant damage to a passenger terminal and minor injuries to a number of employees.
- Dubai's International Airport suffered a missile strike around 0130 am local time, leading to evacuations of the airport.
SITUATION REPORT
- Airspace remains closed across most of the region, along with significant ongoing flight cancellations. Lebanese and Omani airspace remains open for the time being.
- The land border crossing between the UAE and Oman remains open but subject to increased security, delays, and potential closure at any moment.
- Iran has shutdown internet access, and reporting out of the country remains sparse.
ANALYSIS
- Iran's primary goal at this point is to create domestic and international pressure against Israel and the U.S., forcing them to back off. Iran will attempt this through a selective escalation campaign that won't be limited to drones and ballistic missiles, but may include cyberattacks, proxy group actions, and terrorist attacks abroad. These are most likely to manifest in attacks on soft targets in Latin America, Europe, and Africa.
- Continued targeting of U.S. bases and now civilian areas within the GCC states will anger and frustrate these allies of the U.S. In doing so, Iran hopes to get the GCC to pressure the U.S. to provide an offramp to Iran or offer a ceasefire.
- Iran is being much more measured with its use of ballistic missiles and drones after lessons learned during the June 2025 conflict where they sent hundreds of projectiles at Israel over just a few waves with limited success.
- Instead, Iran is now launching multiple smaller waves of missiles and drones over a longer period of time to preserve its stockpile, limit ability for the U.S. and Israel to take out exposed launchers, and elongate the conflict.
- Iran can also exert pressure on energy markets and therefore the global economy by clamping down on the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC Navy has effectively closed the Straits by telling ships it is not safe to pass through; however, while many tankers have turned away, some have still transited.
- Iran retains multiple calibrated escalation tools across military, proxy, maritime, cyber, and covert domains. The crisis is best understood as an unfolding, dynamic campaign rather than a single retaliatory exchange.
RECOMMENDATIONS
- Abide by local guidance regarding shelter-in-place orders.
- If in Israel, remain near bomb shelters and take immediate action at the sound of sirens.
- Be prepared for ongoing major airspace disruptions.
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