On 23 June 2025 at approximately 19:40 local time, Iran launched approximately 14 short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles at the United States (U.S.) al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar. A U.S. official told Fox News no U.S. service members were injured or killed in the attack from Iran. The forewarning of the attack prompted the U.S., UK, and China to issue shelter-in-place warnings for Qatar, and airspace over Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Kuwait was temporarily closed. The shelter-in-place warnings and airspace closures have since been lifted.
In a series of Truth Social posts released around 16:00 EST, President Donald Trump, signaled that he considers the incident closed, and said that "It's time for peace." The signs of de-escalation come after American strikes severely damaged or potentially destroyed the Fordow enrichment plant—including its vital ventilation system—followed by an additional Israeli attack. The facility is now out of operation. So too is the uranium conversion site at Esfahan. As a result, Iran can no longer use the Natanz and Fordow enrichment plants to rapidly produce weapons-grade uranium.
Situation Report
- On 23 June, the U.S. and UK Embassies in Doha issued shelter-in-place alerts. Around 15:20 local time, Qatar announced the closing of its airspace with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Kuwait, subsequently closing their airspaces. Then at 20:00, Bahrain's Ministry of Interior issued a shelter warning.
- Earlier in the day, the Israeli Airforce targeted sites and operations considered critical to the Iranian regime's stability, including several command centers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and several internal security agencies, including the Basij Headquarters, Alborz Corps, Sayyed al-Shuhada Corps, and the General Intelligence Directorate of the Internal Security Forces.
- Additionally, Israel struck the entrances of Fordow and Tehran's Evin Prison, allowing an unknown number of political prisoners to flee, as well as the symbolic Doomsday clock that counts down the time until the destruction of Israel.
- On 22 June, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Terrorism Advisory System issued a bulletin warning about the threat of retaliatory actions due to the U.S. military strikes against Iran, including hate crimes by violent extremists against perceived Jewish or pro-Israel targets and Iranian state-backed cyberattacks. The U.S. Department of State also issued a Worldwide Caution for Americans traveling abroad.
Analysis
Iran’s attack on al-Udeid was “theatrical,” predominantly for domestic consumption to help assuage regime stability concerns. Since Tehran shut down the internet for much of its population, the regime can embellish its strike via state-run media channels and spin no U.S. response as dominance.
- The attack was fully coordinated with Qatar and the United States. This calibrated, face-saving move was designed to limit any American or Arab Gulf state blowback.
- Given President Trump's statement, it is unlikely that the U.S. will respond to this “symbolically.” In fact, it is increasingly possible that the White House is looking to quickly end the conflict.
- Iran’s actions thus far demonstrate that the Khamenei regime is angling to live to fight another day. It has yet to cross any real American red lines, namely U.S. servicemember deaths or material damage to U.S. government assets, or attacks on the energy sector.
- It is unclear if Iran has moved any of its highly enriched uranium. However, its capacity to enrich its supply of 60% enriched uranium to weapons grade is significantly diminished.
- Israel is nearing the completion of its stated objectives after destroying two-thirds of Iran's missile launchers and degrading Iran's nuclear and missile programs.
- Iran and Israel will likely continue tit-for-tat strikes in the short-term; however, additional strikes in the Gulf are unlikely unless the U.S. carries out a similar attack as it did Saturday night when B-2 bombers struck Iran's main nuclear sites.
Recommendations
- Avoid all non-essential travel to the region.
- Evacuate expats from Israel, consider evacuating expats from the region.
- Prepare for contingencies to include evacuation in the event of conflict.
- Listen to government updates and account for potential disruptions to travel due to evolving measures and announcements.
- Establish contingencies to promote business continuity, including stocking essential goods and ensuring a power supply, due to the potential disruptions to such services in the event of an armed escalation or sustained airspace closures.
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