During early-morning hours (local time) on 08 June, Israel launched airstrikes on military targets in central and western Iran. Explosions were heard in Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, and Karaj. The strikes were retaliation for three Iranian missile salvos launched at northern Israel during evening hours on 07 June. While all three salvos were successfully intercepted, they were meant to send a message to Israel more than cause damage. Iran was following through on earlier threats to Israel after Israel bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut earlier in the day, a move viewed as a violation of the ceasefire in place since April. It marks the first exchange between Israel and Iran since the 08 April ceasefire.
After Israel's strikes on Iran, Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree announced a complete and total ban on Israeli navigation in the Red Sea during morning hours local time. It remains to be seen if the Houthis will act on the threat to close Red Sea shipping. The group also confirmed an attack on Haifa, Israel.
Following Iran's three salvos at Israel, President Trump reportedly spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and urged him not to "strike back" as further escalation could derail ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. The IRGC warned that any Israeli response would trigger a more devastating and comprehensive retaliation. Such retaliation could include previous targets in the region such as American military bases in the Gulf, critical infrastructure, and much of Israel. This "more devastating and comprehensive retaliation" did not materialize as Iran is likely focused on securing a favorable deal with the U.S.
Current Status
- Iran's military announced it has completed operations in response to Israeli strikes, stating they will resume if Iran or southern Lebanon is struck again.
- Iraq has reopened airspace after temporary closure.
- President Trump says on Truth Social that Iran and Israel are "looking to do an immediate" ceasefire, adding "final negotiations" are "proceeding"; blockade of Iran will remain in force until a deal is struck.
ANALYSIS
PM Netanyahu found himself in a difficult position. On the one hand, he wants to maintain his close relationship with President Trump, especially given that Netanyahu touts this relationship as a key differential in his election campaign. On the other hand, he did not want to be seen as subservient to Trump or the U.S., or incapable of defending his country which would also hurt his political campaign.
This exchange is about the linkage between the Iran track and the Lebanon track. Iran's attack on Israel was meant to inculcate the new equation that Iran will respond to attacks on its proxies, including Lebanese Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Israel's attacks on Iran were meant to decouple the Iran negotiations from the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Iran must now either accept that Hezbollah is a separate issue, or it can continue up the escalation ladder to preserve the linkage and risk further conflict.
What happens next depends on how close the U.S. and Iran are to a deal, how favorable the deal is in the eyes of Iran, and if Iran believes Hezbollah will be able to politically and militarily recover from Israel's current campaign against it. A similarly rapid escalation cycle is possible as Israel is unlikely to halt strikes in Lebanon.
Recommendations
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Utilize secure transportation for all travel to Beirut, Israel, and the Gulf states amid increased risk of escalation.
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Reconsider non-essential travel to northern Israel and southern Lebanon.
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