Over the last week, the diplomatic track has gained momentum with a major expansion of diplomatic activity across several channels. While the details are not completely certain, the known confines of a deal are as follows.
A temporary memorandum of understanding (MOU) would serve as the starting point of a 60-day negotiation window. The first phase would focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and in exchange the U.S. would end its blockade and Iran would receive limited economic relief, possibly through oil sales. Though unconfirmed, reports suggest that Qatar may offer Iran a USD $12 billion loan as well. The second phase, which would be negotiated within the 60-day window, would revolve around removing elements of Iran's nuclear program for sanctions relief and/or a phased unfreezing of Iranian assets. These remain the thorniest issues. Ultimately, the potential MOU should not be understood as an agreement to end the conflict but rather as a formalized pause.
In addition to the shuttle diplomacy, several more signs point to a possible signing of an MOU in the coming days. Iranian officials are beginning to appear together in public and Iran has begun the process of reactivating the internet. The internet restoration could either be read as a U.S. precondition or as growing Iranian confidence that hostilities have concluded. Meanwhile, the Sultan of Oman has ordered Oman to increase its volume of trade and economic relations with Iran.
Domestically, three Trump allies in the Senate panned a potential deal over the weekend. Senator Ted Cruz said an outcome that preserves the Iran regime and grants it economic relief would be a mistake. Senator Lindsey Graham warned that the perception that Iran can control the Strait of Hormuz and damage Gulf infrastructure will shift the region's balance of power. And Senator Roger Wicker said that the rumored deal erodes the military accomplishments of Operation Epic Fury.
The inclusion of Lebanon within the MOU remains a major point of uncertainty. Since the 08 April U.S.–Iran ceasefire came into effect, Iranian officials have maintained that Israeli operations against Hezbollah must fall under any agreements. Consequently, Israel agreed to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire on 16 April, with the caveat that it could continue "defensive" operations. While the ceasefire has been nominally extended until 01 July, President Trump reportedly agreed that Israel would retain freedom of action against Hezbollah during Trump’s 23 May call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israeli military leaders are increasingly frustrated over the constraints imposed on them. Hezbollah has launched over 1,000 drones and 700 rockets, killing 10 soldiers since 17 April. While the ceasefire has largely prevented Israeli strikes on Beirut and Hezbollah strikes on central Israel, Israel is still far away from achieving its war aim of allowing its northern communities to live “in full security” and facilitating a return home of its residents, with Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is now in a reelection campaign, coming under increasing pressure. On 26 May, Israel expanded ground operations beyond the Israeli-occupied Yellow Line amid an expansion of airstrikes in the Bekaa Valley and other areas of Lebanon.
Situation report
- 26 May: U.S. CENTCOM denies resumption of the mission to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz (Project Freedom).
- 26 May: Netblocks confirms partial restoration of Iran's internet connectivity.
- 25 May: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian orders restoration of Iran's internet access.
- 25 May: The U.S. sinks two Iranian boats attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces launch surface-to-air missiles in response; U.S. forces then strike a surface-to-air missile battery near Bandar Abbas.
- 25 May: Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf arrive in Doha, Qatar, for talks on frozen assets and lifting the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
- 25 May: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vows to expand operations in Lebanon in a recorded address.
- 23 May: President Trump claims on Truth Social that an agreement with Iran has been "largely negotiated."
- 23 May: U.S. President Donald Trump holds separate calls with regional Arab leaders and with Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu.
- 23 May: U.S. President Donald Trump tells Axios he will decide by 24 May whether or not to resume strikes on Iran.
- 23 May: Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir visits Tehran, Iran.
- 22 May: A Qatari negotiating team visits Tehran, Iran.
- 21 May: U.S. House of Representatives Republicans delay war powers vote until after Congress returns on 01 June.
- 21 May: Pakistani Interior Minister Naqvi travels to Iran to meet IRGC Chief General Vahidi.
- 21 May: Reuters reports that Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has ruled that Iran's HEU stockpile must remain inside the country. This report is then denied by a senior Iranian official.
Airspace Status
- Iran: airspace restricted
- Bahrain: airspace open
- Cyprus: airspace open
- Egypt: airspace open
- Iraq: airspace open
- Israel: airspace open
- Jordan: airspace open
- Kuwait: airspace open
- Lebanon: airspace open
- Oman: airspace open
- Qatar: airspace open
- Saudi Arabia: airspace open
- Syria: airspace open
- UAE: airspace open
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