Analysis
As noted in Global Guardian’s February 2020 World Wide Threat Assessment, Sino-American relations have been deteriorating, trending towards economic decoupling, and fierce competition over future dominance of next generation technologies. The last six weeks have marked a significant acceleration of this general trend. However, the U.S. administration’s responses towards China have been restrained and incremental. The U.S. has stopped short of escalating with China so as not to derail the ongoing phase one trade talks that are expected to resume in August.
With less than 100 days until the U.S. presidential election, we expect President Trump to take further measures against China. The extent of such measures will largely be determined by the fate of the trade negotiations. The outcomes may negatively impact the American business community.
Potential Fall Out
Diplomatic rows tend to be reciprocal, but China may also respond unofficially. This could take the form of bureaucratic and regulatory measures targeting U.S. firms in China or a renewed push by Chinese advanced persistent threat (APT) hacking units to disrupt U.S. firms at home. Earlier this month, Chinese APT groups reportedly targeted Indian and Hong Kong-based firms following increases in political tensions.
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