On 28 July in the evening hours, Iran launched a surprise missile attack against American forces in Jordan, ending a five-day mutual pause on direct attacks. During the lull, Iranian partners in Yemen and Iraq launched strikes against Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel. In response, the United States (U.S.) and Saudi Arabia carried out joint air strikes on sites belonging to Iran-backed militia groups across Iraq, including targets in Baghdad, Nineveh, Diyala, Karbala, Kirkuk, Basra, and Wasit, reportedly killing 20.
- Global Guardian maintains that firms should reconsider non-essential travel to the region.
- A resumption of Iranian strikes on infrastructure in the region is possible. This could include the targeting of airports, hotels, power plants, desalination plants, and petroleum facilities across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
The Iranian attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan came while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was in Washington. Netanyahu's previous meeting with President Trump occurred less than three weeks before Operation Epic Fury when Netanyahu reportedly made a pitch for the U.S. to join Israeli strikes on Iran. In this light, Iran's preemptive attack can be seen as coercive signaling that future American attacks will not be met with restraint. Iran's attack also possibly signals pessimism toward a diplomatic solution.
After threatening a “massive attack” on Iran on 23 July, U.S. President Donald Trump canceled an attack planned for the following day, which coincided with the arrival of an Omani delegation to Tehran for talks on a new arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, Oman proposed a regional consortium responsible for maritime security with voluntary shipping fees for related services and a transit route half in Omani waters and half in Iranian waters. However, Iran formally rejected the proposal on 28 July. A day earlier, President Trump told Axios that if talks fail, "... we will go back to very strong military action."
Meanwhile, attacks on regional states by Iranian partners are expanding. On 24 July, the Saudi vessel NCC MASA was attacked while attempting to run the Houthi blockade. In response, Saudi Arabia struck the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah in Yemen. On 25 July, the Houthis launched three ballistic missiles at Saudi Aramco's Jazan oil refinery, and on 27 July, Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq oil processing facility came under drone attack from Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. Following the attacks, Saudi Aramco suspended operations at both facilities. Drones launched from Iraq were also intercepted by Israel and Jordan on 27 July. On 28 July, the Houthis claimed to have fired ballistic missiles at a Saudi oil tanker, the NCC Ghazal. With attacks on both ends of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, the oil infrastructure bypassing the Hormuz blockade is now disrupted, putting further strain on the global energy supply.
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