U.S.–Iran maritime attacks in the Strait of Hormuz are escalating as the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen increasingly target Saudi oil facilities. On 09 September, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claims to have struck eight tankers. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), based in Dubai, UAE, confirmed that several merchant vessels were disabled. In addition, Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on U.S. bases in Jordan, with the Jordanian Armed Forces claiming to have intercepted 18 of 20 missiles. These attacks are the latest in a series of tit-for-tat exchanges between the U.S. and Iran and an extension of the U.S. "tanker for tanker" doctrine where Iranian attacks on commercial ships, and now U.S. naval vessels, elicit American attacks on Iranian tankers.
On 08 September, U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers, likely in response to a yet-to-be-acknowledged attack on U.S. ships on 07 September, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. According to Iranian media, new missiles with advanced guidance capabilities were used. Iran's Joint Command ordered Iranian tanker crews to evacuate ahead of additional U.S. attacks and warned that further U.S. attacks on tankers would result in attacks on U.S. bases across the region. This comes as the U.S. destroyed an Iranian oil tanker and disabled two more, following failed Iranian attempts to strike a U.S. aircraft carrier and destroyer on 05 September.
Global Guardian recommends firms carefully consider travel to the region amid risk of renewed conflict in the near term.
- Global Guardian advises against non-essential travel to southern Saudi Arabia, including the provinces of Aseer, Jazan, and Najran.
- The current escalations in the Strait of Hormuz and in Yemen do not change the security outlook for key upcoming events in the region, such as FII in Riyadh in October. However, developments in Yemen should be monitored closely.
In Yemen, the civil war continues to intensify with spillover impacts in southern Saudi Arabia. On 08 September, the Houthis launched a coordinated drone and missile attack on the Saudi cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait, Najran, and Jazan. The attacks reportedly injured 73 civilians and disrupted operations at several Saudi Aramco facilities. The attack was partially responsible for Brent Crude reaching over $99 per barrel, the highest price since April 2026.
The Houthi attack comes as the group is coming under increasing pressure. Yemeni government-aligned forces are simultaneously attacking Houthi forces in Taiz, Hodeidah, Al-Jawf, Marib, and Al-Bayda under Saudi air cover. Reports indicate that Yemeni forces have recaptured Al Yatmah and a strategic Houthi base (al-Libnat) in the last 48 hours. On 07 September, Yemen’s Deputy Defense Minister Maj. Gen. Sameer Al-Sabri declared that the decision to recapture the capital, Sana’a, has been made.
In terms of outlook, the tanker-for-tanker policy and Iranian attacks on U.S. forces in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain are expected over the next two weeks. On the Yemeni front, Global Guardian expects continued Houthi strikes on southern Saudi border regions, oil infrastructure, and tankers in the Red Sea. However, as counter-Houthi forces continue to advance, deeper strikes in Saudi Arabia are possible.
Global Guardian assesses that credible threats to the Houthis' key lines of communication, primarily the Marib–Sana'a land corridor, or the city of Hodeidah and its air and seaports, are likely to promote "use it or lose it" thinking whereby the Houthis expand targeting to include Saudi Arabia's key economic and political centers, including Riyadh and Jeddah. The introduction of Saudi ground forces or targeted assassinations of key Houthi leaders could also trigger a major shift in Houthi target selection within Saudi Arabia.
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