There are several possible indications that the conflict in the Middle East is imminently set to expand. On 19 September, the United States Department of State issued a region-wide security alert for the Middle East, warning Americans that the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis could “escalate rapidly,” also notifying travelers that flights may be impacted by the fighting. The warning comes after the Houthis attacked Riyadh for the first time, hitting a fuel storage tank at the airport. Airspace was briefly disrupted.
Visible damage to fuel depots at King Khalid International Airport (RUH) was reported, and Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree claimed a "large number of ballistic and cruise missiles and drones" were employed to strike sites in Riyadh and a Saudi Aramco site in Yanbu. While Saree claimed the attack was a cumulative response to Saudi Arabia's air campaign in Yemen, it is more likely that the Riyadh attack was a retaliation for what appears to be a targeted assassination event in the Houthi capital of Sana'a the previous day. On 18 September, there were numerous reports in Sana'a of drone activity and anti-aircraft fire. A Saudi outlet claims that the strikes killed four commanders, including alleged Iranian IRGC experts.
Global Guardian recommends against non-essential travel to Saudi Arabia and that firms carefully consider travel to the region amid risk of renewed conflict in the near term.
- Global Guardian strongly advises against all non-essential travel to southern Saudi Arabia, including the provinces of Aseer, Jazan, and Najran.
- Firms with planned travel to Saudi Arabia should closely monitor the situation in Yemen.
- Travel to the Gulf states will likely be disrupted should the U.S. launch a major offensive against Iran.
In addition to the Riyadh attack, President Trump cut short his Camp David retreat to return to Washington on 19 September. According to CNN's national security analyst Alex Plitsas, the President reviewed potential U.S. military strike options against the Houthis in Yemen during meetings at Camp David. Trump's unscheduled departure occurred alongside a major uptick in U.S. refueling tanker traffic in the Middle East, with eight tankers observed airborne over the Persian Gulf region.
On 20 September, Iran's central military command issued a statement that it had received information that the U.S. is planning on resuming military action with the approval of its regional partners. It said any U.S. attack would trigger Iranian strikes on U.S. bases and interests in the region.
Why Now?
Both Saudi Arabia and the Trump administration are under pressure following successful strikes against Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline. This took a significant capacity offline, leading to rising oil prices and causing Saudi Arabia to cancel upcoming delivery contracts to Europe. Facing this pressure, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and a lack of diplomatic progress over the last three months, the U.S. may feel it has no choice but to hit Iran and/or the Houthis hard enough to force capitulation. It is unclear what form this could take, but the conditions are set.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with the following:
- Evacuation planning and execution
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Risk assessments
Click below to contact Global Guardian's 24/7 Operations Center or call us directly at +1 (703) 566-9463.
