HOW A US ASSAULT ON KHARG ISLAND COULD UNFOLD

“Any operation to seize Kharg Island would be economic warfare—you are fighting in a completely different and more complex space.” 

As the U.S. weighs next steps in the conflict with Iran, the Financial Times examined how a potential operation targeting Kharg Island—the country’s primary oil export hub—could reshape both the battlefield and global energy markets.

Global Guardian Vice President of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich noted that targeting critical energy infrastructure would extend beyond traditional military objectives into economic disruption, with ripple effects across global markets and regional stability.

The last 48 hours have seen multiple news reports and direct quotes from President Trump signaling some level of discussions between the U.S. and Iran have either taken place or are going to happen in the coming days. Per The New York Times, the U.S. delivered a 15-point plan to Iran via Pakistan. During a press conference on 24 March, President Trump said the U.S. is talking to the "right people" (possibly Iranian Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf) in Iran and claimed they "want to make a deal so badly." He further elaborated by claiming Iran has given the U.S. "a gift worth a lot of money" related to oil and gas. These statements, along with the announcement that VP JD Vance and Secretary Rubio are leading negotiations with Iran, possibly in Pakistan, are the strongest signals yet that diplomatic channels are open. 

The chatter around negotiations comes as the U.S. is deploying up to 3,000 soldiers with the Army's 82nd Airborne Division to the region, in addition to the 2,500 Marines en route with a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) from Asia. They are expected to be in theater by this weekend, with an additional MEU from California expected to arrive next week. On several occasions, the U.S. has led the international community (and Iran) to believe negotiations were forthcoming before attacking Iran. The five-day ultimatum given by President Trump earlier in the week will expire around when these troops arrive in the region.

Meanwhile, the U.S.–Israeli pace of operations is decelerating. U.S. CENTCOM and the Joint Chiefs are issuing fewer tactical updates, and daily strike rates have fallen sharply—from approximately 500 targets per day in the early stages of the conflict to roughly 240 currently (approximately 1,200 targets struck between 18–23 March). An IDF official stated on 19 March that 90% of pre-conflict target sets had been struck. The U.S. and Israel may be approaching the limits of what airpower can reach. The two unresolved strategic objectives—reopening the Strait of Hormuz and eliminating Iran's nuclear threat—cannot be achieved through airpower alone and will require either ground forces or a diplomatic settlement.

Fog of War Is Clouding Negotiations

Talks are complicated by two compounding uncertainties. First, per a Wall Street Journal report, Iran's ceasefire proposal is maximalist. If this reflects Iran's actual position rather than an opening bid, the gap between the parties is too wide to bridge in the near term. Second, it remains unclear what authority the Iranian negotiating team holds over the IRGC. With Iran's command and control severely degraded, lower-level commanders appear to be operating with broad latitude under a decentralized "mosaic defense" doctrine. This creates a meaningful risk that talks could be undermined by remaining IRGC command elements—or by lower-level officers acting unilaterally—regardless of what any negotiating channel produces.

Post-Deadline Scenarios

After Friday's deadline, four trajectories are possible:

• Significant Escalation: The U.S. strikes Iran's largest power generation infrastructure; Iran retaliates with extensive damage to Gulf energy facilities, potentially drawing Gulf states or Houthi forces in Yemen into direct combat.

• Limited Escalation: The U.S. conducts targeted, symbolic strikes on Iranian fuel and energy infrastructure to increase negotiating pressure without triggering a broader exchange.

• Status Quo: President Trump allows his ultimatum to pass without action. Newly arrived expeditionary forces begin positioning for operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

• Temporary Ceasefire: Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey mediate a phased pause in hostilities, modeled on the Gaza framework, under which parties agree to suspend combat for a defined period while negotiators work to narrow the substantial gaps between positions. The U.S. or Israel would retain the option to resume operations if talks stall.

During the early morning hours on 23 March, President Trump announced on Truth Social that he had instructed the Department of War to halt planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days following what he described as "very good and productive conversations" with Iran regarding a "complete and total resolution of our hostilities." He had previously set a 48-hour deadline on Saturday, 21 March for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face "obliteration" of its power plants. Iran threatened Gulf power plants and desalination facilities in response.

Iranian media say there was no direct or indirect contact with the Trump administration. As such, it is possible that Gulf states pressured the U.S. to postpone its strikes on Iranian power plants as the destruction of their own power plants would be catastrophic for maintaining desalination plants, their only source of fresh water. 

Over the weekend, Iran continued launching drones and missiles at Israel and the Gulf states. The vast majority were successfully intercepted. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia remain top targets for Iran. It appears that Qatar has not been targeted since last week's strikes on the Ras Laffan complex. 

In the last 48 hours, Iran has targeted oil and gas infrastructure across the region in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities linked to the South Pars gas field on 18 March. Targeted sites include the Ras Laffan LNG facility in Qatar, Mina al-Abdullah oil refinery in Kuwait, Al Hosn Gas Field, Habshan facility in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), SAMREF refinery in Saudi Arabia, Jubail Petrochemical Complex in Saudi Arabia, and the Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex in Qatar. Iran also targeted Israel's Haifa oil refinery. 

Israeli sources describe the attack on the Iranian gas field as a coordinated warning signal to the Islamic Republic meant to make clear that if Iran keeps destabilizing the global economy through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, its energy sector will be hit. On 19 March, President Trump stated on Truth Social that Israel would not conduct further attacks on South Pars facilities and warned Iran that subsequent attacks on Qatar's LNG facilities would trigger American strikes on South Pars.    

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan released a joint statement expressing their readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure the safe passage of commercial shipping through the Strait. Germany and the Netherlands said a ceasefire or at least a cessation of hostilities was a precondition for participation. Despite the statement, it is unlikely any of these countries deploy military assets to the Strait until a ceasefire is in effect. 

According to an Axios report, the U.S. is considering plans to occupy or blockade Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This could include U.S. troops on the ground or a U.S. Navy blockade of tankers bound for China and other destinations. An unnamed official is quoted as saying, "We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, [and] take the island." This reinforces the idea that the conflict will continue for some time as both parties climb the escalation ladder with no clear off-ramp in sight. 

Israel announced it had killed Iran's top national security official, Ali Larijani, and the head of the Basij (Iran's internal repression apparatus), Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani, in airstrikes on 17 March. According to CNN, citing an unnamed senior official, the U.S. and Israel considered Ali Larijani their favored transitional candidate last year, but he became a target following his push for violent crackdown on protestors earlier this year, his recent public rhetoric following the start of war, and his large role in strategizing IRGC response, including against Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Addressing the assassination, Prime Minister Netanyahu said of the killings “we are undermining this regime in the hope of giving the Iranian people an opportunity to remove it.” 

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, reporting suggests that Denmark, the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are considering joining the U.S. in operations to reopen it. U.S. CENTCOM confirmed the use of heavy "bunker buster" ordnance targeting missile sites in the caves above the Strait. 

How multinational firms are supporting workers affected by the US-Israeli war with Iran

“When it became more crowded to fly commercial out of Muscat by day four or five of the conflict, Global Guardian arranged charter flights for clients.”

As multinational companies navigate employee safety during the ongoing Middle East conflict, HR Brew highlighted how organizations are supporting staff affected by rapidly changing conditions across the region.

Global Guardian Vice President of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich described how evacuation efforts have required constant adaptation—from ground transport into Oman to coordinating onward travel as airspace closures and congestion limited commercial options.

“Iran has multiple different levers they can pull to create disruption—cyber being one, disinformation being another.”

As the conflict with Iran continues to evolve, NewsNation spoke with Global Guardian Vice President of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich about the growing range of risks shaping the security environment across the Middle East.

Krummrich discussed how Tehran can create pressure through multiple channels beyond direct military confrontation—including cyber operations, disinformation campaigns, and economic disruption tied to the Strait of Hormuz.

 The Strait of Hormuz remains the current focal point of the conflict after the U.S. conducted strikes late on 13 March targeting Iran's military infrastructure on Kharg Island, the country's primary energy export hub. This could be in preparation for a ground operation after the U.S. announced the deployment of part of an amphibious ready group, including an attached Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), to the region. The U.S. strike on the island left its oil infrastructure intact, but President Donald Trump warned that if Iran or anyone else interferes with the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, he will reconsider his decision not to destroy it.

After the attack on Kharg Island, Iran threatened retaliation against multiple cities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where it claims U.S. attacks originated: “[The IRGC] considers it its legitimate right to defend its national sovereignty and territory by hitting and targeting the origin of the American enemy missiles in shipping ports, docks, and hideouts of American soldiers sheltered in some cities in the UAE.”

According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. is preparing to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition that will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Many countries, including NATO allies, have either declined or been noncommittal; however, UK Prime Minister Starmer announced on 16 March that the UK is working on a "viable plan" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with allies. This comes after President Trump said it would be "very bad for the future of NATO" if allies don't help secure the Strait.

Relatedly, Saudi Arabia's East–West Pipeline is now moving nearly 7 million bpd from the Gulf to the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and alleviate some of the supply disruptions. Dozens of tankers are now making their way through the Red Sea to the Yanbu terminal to load up on crude oil; however, there is growing concern that the Houthis in Yemen could attempt to disrupt the route. In addition, a spokesman for Iran's joint command (Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters) warned that "The logistical and service centers for the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group in the Red Sea are considered targets by the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran." Yanbu port is the logistical hub for the USS Gerald R. Ford, raising concerns it will be targeted. 

On 12 March, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced a plan to release 400 million barrels of oil through various Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). These SPRs are held by its 32 member countries that voted unanimously to move forward with the release. President Trump announced the U.S. would release 172 million barrels from its 415-million-barrel reserve. Asia has been affected most heavily by the supply shock due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It relies on the Gulf for some 60% of its oil imports. Japan will release around 80 million barrels, equivalent to a 45-day supply.   

The IEA decision comes a day after Iraq shut down its fuel port operations following strikes on several tankers in its territorial waters by explosive-laden, unmanned boats. The only tankers passing through the Strait are Iranian ships headed for China, or ones that receive special approval as has occurred for some Turkish and Chinese-flagged vessels.

President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both commented on the possibility of U.S. Navy escorts of tankers through the Strait. Secretary Bessent said it could happen with an international coalition. While no timeline was given, President Trump has frequently said it would happen "as soon as possible" or "as soon as necessary." It's likely the release of the SPR will push back the timing on possible Navy escorts while the U.S. continues to degrade Iran's military capabilities.