CEO DALE BUCKNER Interviewed From on the ground in Naples, FLOrida

CEO Dale Buckner talks to CNN about Global Guardian’s efforts in supporting clients impacted by Hurricane Ian: “For us, it’s all about speed and response. On Monday we put assets and people in Jacksonville Florida, Miami, Bradenton, Fort Meyers and Naples not knowing where the final storm would hit. Ultimately, once we knew the final path, we adjusted where those assets were. The storm then hit Fort Meyers at about 3:00pm local. By about 7:30pm that evening, we were executing our first high-water emergency response missions to get people out of their homes.”

Saudi Arabia Travel Advice: What To Know Before You Go

"Travelers should assume that communication is monitored at all times. Hotel rooms may also be subject to surveillance and can be accessed without the consent of the guest. Electronic devices may be screened by customs officials on arrival and departure." 

In a recent Forbes article discussing the risks of travel to the KSA, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner weighs in on the issue of cyber security in a country known for its surveillance of telephone and email communications.

WJCT-FM's "First Coast Connect" Featured Segment at 28:39

“That’s how we’ll transition and phase through, from emergency response to a lot of assessment work, and then we’ll transition to security mode until the power comes back on.”

In a recent interview on Jacksonville’s NPR station, WJCT-FM, CEO Dale Buckner provides insight into the damage and security threats as a result of Hurricane Ian from on the ground in Florida, where Global Guardian has been focused on emergency response and supporting its clients, businesses, and families.

Click below to listen to the show. If interested in skipping ahead, Global Guardian segment begins at 28:39.

SITUATIONAL UPDATE

• Hurricane Ian hit the west coast of Florida on Wednesday as a Category 4 storm, bringing sustained 150mph winds, massive storm surge, and torrential rains.
• Hardest hit areas include Naples, Fort Myers, Sanibel Island, Port Charlotte, Cape Coral, Punta Gorda, and Englewood.
• As a result, more than 2.5 million customers remain without power across the state. Similarly, there are significant disruptions to running water service.
• Flight cancellations continue across the state.
• There is at least one confirmed fatality.

CURRENT STATUS & FORECAST

• Heavy rains brought by Ian are causing flash flooding across much of central and eastern Florida, and flash flood and storm surge warnings are in effect for eastern and northeastern parts of the state. Rainfall totals could exceed 12 inches.
• Ian is expected to bring tropical storm force winds, heavy rains, flash flooding, and storm surge to the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina in coming days.

SECURITY

• Reports of looting at gas stations and pharmacies highlight the safety and security risks in the aftermath of major natural disasters. Such activity is likely to continue as long as power is out and first responders are busy operating rescue missions. 
• Curfews are in place in multiple cities and counties in the hardest-hit areas, including Fort Myers and Naples, Lee County, and Charlotte County. 

SPECIAL REPORT

In the morning hours of 27 September, Hurricane Ian strengthened into a Category 3 storm before making landfall near the Cuban town of La Coloma in Pinar Del Rio province, located approximately 150 km (100 mi) southwest of Havana. According to current estimates, Ian is expected to reach the central Florida west coast late Wednesday night or Thursday morning as a Category 3 storm or higher. The Tampa Bay area can expect a storm surge of 6-10 feet and Jacksonville and other areas along the St. Johns River may also be at risk for a severe storm surge.

The hurricane is expected to produce the following amounts of rainfall:

• 100-150 mm in the U.S. Florida Keys and South Florida
• 300-405 mm in central-western Florida (with isolated totals of 610 mm)
• 75-200 mm in northeastern Florida
• 130-250 mm in the rest of the central Florida Peninsula

Prolonged rainfall will lead to flooding in some areas, and an ongoing risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes will be a concern from Florida to Georgia and the Carolinas through the weekend.

The two factors to watch going forward will be the southward dip in the jet stream across the United States, which could pull the storm northward and into the coast, and to what extent the storm slows upon landfall when reaching Florida. The slower the storm is traveling, the higher the risk of intense rainfall and storm surge.

• On 27 September, Tampa International Airport (KTPA/TRP) will suspend operations starting at 17:00 (local time). St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport (KPIE/PIE) will completely shut down as of 13:00 (local time).
• Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for communities near Tampa Bay, including Charlotte, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota counties.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

• To view Global Guardian’s 2022 Hurricane Preparedness Guide, click here.
• For those currently in Florida, we also advise consulting the Florida Division of Emergency Management here.

Wall Street Banks Prep for Grim China Scenarios Over Taiwan

“Russia has proven to be a template of what you don’t want to happen.” 

In a recent Bloomberg article, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner discussed how global financial firms are urgently preparing contingency plans to minimize losses in the event of a conflict between China and Taiwan—and how Global Guardian is assisting clients in this industry to reduce their exposure.

Fires in California incur significant financial and human costs that are expected to rise as a changing climate renders the state hotter and drier for longer.

Major fire incidents have steadily increased across the entirety of California over the past few decades. The risk of fire has extended to the whole state, and fire season is now year-long. The destruction of housing, displacement of residents, disruption to businesses, frequent power blackouts, degradation of air quality, and drain on public resources caused by fires, heatwaves, and droughts have a host of associated environmental and economic consequences that will continue to threaten lives and livelihoods in California for years to come. The risks from wildfires, heatwaves, and droughts underscore the need to properly prepare for these hazards.

Thus far in 2022 wildfires in California have killed nine people, displaced more than 6000 others, consumed more than 360,000 acres of land, and destroyed more than 700 structures. September and October are historically the most dangerous months for wildfires, and there are currently around a dozen major fires burning across the state.

The number of acres burned in wildfires varies year to year but is generally trending upwards.

The growing intensity and extent of wildfires is driven by climate change. Average summer temperatures in California have risen by approximately 3 degrees F (1.8℃) since 1896, with more than half of that increase occurring since the early 1970s. As temperatures rise, California’s environment becomes drier and hotter. This leads to more wildfires but also to heatwaves and droughts. Wildfires are made both more likely and more difficult to fight by the increased temperatures caused by heatwaves and reduced availability of water caused by droughts. These weather phenomena feed into each other in a number of ways with serious environmental, health, and economic impacts.

Heatwaves have grown increasingly deadly in their own right. In 2021, extreme heat killed more Americans than any other weather-related disaster. In Europe, heatwaves are being given designated names, similar to hurricanes, in an effort to raise awareness among the public of their lethal potential. The below graphs from NASA highlight the rising number, duration, and intensity of heatwaves in California.

Preparation

Have a Plan

• If you anticipate needing assistance during a disaster, talk to family, friends and others who will be part of your personal support network.
• Write down and share each aspect of your emergency plan with everyone in your support network.
• Make sure everyone knows how you plan to evacuate your home or workplace and where you will go in case of a disaster.
• Make sure that someone in your local network has an extra key to your home and knows where you keep your emergency supplies.
• Teach those who will help you how to use any lifesaving equipment and administer medicine in case of an emergency.
• Practice your plan, and update it as needed.

Build a Go Bag

• Non-perishable foods
• Medicines and first aid supplies
• Potable water
• Flashlights and batteries
• Mask and/or respirator
• Satellite phone

'Act of Desperation': Putin's Partial Mobilization of Russia Could Be His Undoing

"They're not going to fight for the guy to the right or left. They're not going to have that moral conviction that what they're doing is right and matters." 

Drawing on insight and intelligence from Global Guardian’s on-the-ground teams in Ukraine and his special forces background, CEO Dale Buckner sat down with Newsweek to discuss the potential challenges of Russia’s partial mobilization and what it means for Ukraine at this point in the war.

Strategic UPDATE 

The war in Ukraine has effectively entered its third phase as Russia is now implicitly acknowledging its desperation. Ukraine has managed to seize the momentum of the war and with winter rapidly approaching, the Kremlin has shifted course to solidify its gains before it is too late. With the proposed accessions of the Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine, President Putin will now have the internal legitimacy to escalate the war.

• On 21 September, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the partial mobilization of up to 300,000 citizens with specialist training and military experience. The mobilization announcement comes on the heels of a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in north-eastern Ukraine that now threatens Russian control of territory it occupies in the Donbas—whose liberation has been Russia’s main stated objective since late March.

• On 20 September, Russian-appointed officials in occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk oblasts announced referenda on accession to the Russian Federation which will be held 23-27 September.

• Also on 20 September, Russia’s State Duma unanimously passed an amendment to the criminal code, establishing penalties for “crimes against military service” if they are committed during mobilization, during wartime, under martial law, or under conditions of any armed conflict. The law increases penalties for desertion, insubordination, and voluntary surrender.

• On 21 September, anecdotal reports circulated that Russian railways and Aeroflot halted ticket sales to men ages 18-65, a claim that the companies have since denied. Border crossings are reportedly closed to males aged 18-45.

ANALYSIS

• The annexation announcement is meant to dissuade Kyiv from continuing its counteroffensive and convince its Western benefactors that continued financial and material support for Ukraine can lead to a more severe Russian response, as Russia will now see Ukraine as attacking its territory. Putin’s threat to use “all means” is a tacit threat to use nuclear weapons, as Russian nuclear doctrine provides for the use of a first strike in defense of the homeland.

• The mobilization and referenda together signal a shift in Russian domestic framing for the war and an unprecedented acknowledgment of force insufficiency. Annexation will force Russia to deploy conscripted forces already integrated into the military to eastern Ukrainian territory quickly to rebuff the current Ukrainian counteroffensive.

• By enacting a partial rather than full mobilization and continuing to refer to the war as a special military operation, Putin is balancing pressure from hardliners calling for a more robust commitment to the war effort with the potential unrest that a full mobilization—especially with the conscription of the urban elite—and declaration of war could incite.

LOOKING AHEAD

• Russia does not have the capacity to quickly mobilize 300,000 troops. The process will take months if not a year to accomplish. The Kremlin will directly increase force generation through continued voluntary self-mobilization and an expansion of its legal authority to deploy Russian conscripts already with the force to fight in Ukraine. Russia should be able to quickly send in several thousand troops to the frontlines; however, their training levels and morale will be even lower than the current lot. Even in the short-run, it is unlikely they will be able to prove effective on the battlefield.
• The annexation of Russian-controlled territory is irreconcilable with Kyiv's new aim to regain all of Ukraine's territory. This will make the prospects of any negotiated settlement even dimmer.
• Understanding the desperate situation, Putin will now be more inclined to "win at all costs." We have already seen a recent increase in Russia's willingness to target Ukrainian civilian infrastructure (electricity, water, and communications), we can now expect more.

Analysis: Ukraine blindsides Russia with northeastern thrust at supply hub

"This is the first real validation of Ukraine’s ability to counterattack—but with limited success. It does change the path of the conflict moving forward. The Russians now have an expanding challenge of defending the terrain they have taken."

Leveraging intelligence and insight from Global Guardian’s on-the-ground response teams, CEO Dale Buckner discusses Ukraine’s recent counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region and how it impacts the path of the conflict moving forward in a recent Reuters article.