At approximately 01:45 local time on 07 May 2025, India launched airstrikes under “Operation Sindoor,” targeting nine “terrorist infrastructure sites” across Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir in response to the 22 April Pahalgam massacre. Targets included Bahawalpur, Muridke, Gulpur, Bhimber, Chak Amru, Bagh, Kotli, Sialkot, and Muzaffarabad. Pakistan is expected to respond, with escalation risks hinging on the nature and impact of any retaliatory strikes.
Situation Report
Cross-border hostilities escalated post-strike, with heavy exchanges along the Line of Control (LoC) and conflicting reports of downed aircraft. Pakistan claims five Indian jets shot down; India reportedly lost three (NYT). Over the last 24 hours, there have been significant commercial aviation disruptions. Pakistan reopened Lahore and Karachi airspace, but most flights remain grounded. India closed 16 airports in western and northern regions including Leh, Srinagar, Jammu, Amritsar, and Jodhpur.
- Islamabad maintains that 26 people were killed and 46 injured in India’s strikes.
- Indian authorities conducted civil defense drills across 244 high-risk districts in 35 states and union territories, focusing on evacuation rehearsals, blackout simulations, and air raid protocols, causing localized disruptions.
- Reports from 06 May indicate India halted the flow of the Chenab River to Pakistan’s Punjab province via the Balihar Dam in Jammu and Kashmir, and is planning to restrict the Jhelum River through the Kishanganga Dam—moves Islamabad has labeled acts of war.
AnalYsis
The strikes resemble India’s 2019 Balakot strikes but on a broader scale, targeting known Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) strongholds, including deep strikes in Bahawalpur and Muridke. India avoided crossing the border, using standoff weapons and avoiding Pakistani military targets, signaling intent to contain escalation.
- Early disclosure of strike details suggests India is seeking limited retribution and a diplomatic offramp. Pakistan’s foreign minister has indicated a preference for de-escalation, though a military response is expected.
- Major outside actors have a strong interest in decreasing tensions.
- Thus far, the crisis can be understood through the lens of mutual deterrence and face-saving, not strategic aims. Both sides likely wish to avoid broader conflict.
- If warplane losses are confirmed, India has paid a high cost, giving Pakistan more room to respond selectively without major escalation.
- The “ball” is in Pakistan's court now. Pakistan will likely feel compelled to respond by launching its own strikes on India. Depending on what Pakistan targets and any damage and casualties, India could then decide to escalate or allow tensions to cool down.
- Miscalculation remains a serious risk, with potential for further strikes or rapid escalation.
Recommendations
- Avoid all travel to the border regions, particularly districts near the LoC and the international border, due to current cross-border fire/airstrikes and the extreme collateral civilian risks.
- In both countries, avoid the vicinity of all demonstrations, particularly those related to the ongoing tensions, due to the potential for clashes and wider unrest.
- Listen to government updates and account for potential disruptions to travel due to evolving measures and announcements.
- Establish contingencies to promote business continuity, including stocking essential goods and ensuring a power supply, due to the potential disruptions to such services in the event of an armed escalation or sustained safety-related curfews.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with local teams in the area to provide:
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Risk assessments
