A ceasefire went into effect on Saturday 10 May following multiple escalatory attacks by both Pakistan and India. Pakistan reopened its airspace the same day while operations resumed at 32 airports in India a day later. The escalation cycle appears to be over with both sides claiming some form of victory.
Situation Report
The ceasefire, reportedly brokered by the U.S. with efforts from both the UK and Saudi Arabia, came after India struck multiple Pakistan Air Force bases in Rafiqui, Murid, Nur Khan, Rahim Yar Khan, Sukkur, Chunian, Pasrur, and Sialkot. While violations by Pakistan were reported shortly after the ceasefire went into effect, there have now been at least 24 hours without incident.
- Indian officials claim to have killed up to 40 Pakistani military personnel during 07-10 May clashes along the line of control in Jammu and Kashmir, along with more than 100 militants since the start of the conflict.
- Pakistan officials claim their military shot down five Indian Air Force jets, including three high-tech Rafale from the French defense firm Dassault. During a press briefing, India's Air Marshal Bharti did not specifically confirm these claims, but noted that "losses are part of combat."
- There are unconfirmed reports that India struck the Kirana Hills fortified base, said to house part of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. At a press briefing on 12 May, Director General of India's Air Operations, Air Marshal AK Bharti, rejected rumors that Kirana Hills in Punjab province had been hit as part of India's Operation Sindoor.
- Anti-Pakistan and anti-India protests broke out across both India and Pakistan respectively over the conflict. For example, on 11 May, the Karachi Bakery in Hyderabad, India was vandalized by protesters chanting anti-Pakistan slogans.
- Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif declared 11 May to be a day "in recognition of the armed forces' response to recent Indian aggression," with parties and rallies held across the country.
AnalYsis
The rapid conclusion of hostilities highlights the degree to which both India and Pakistan wanted to avoid full-blown war, along with similar feelings from major outside powers like China, Russia, and the United States. However, the core issues remain unresolved.
- The strikes on Pakistani Air Force bases, launched from Indian Air Force jets, were not intercepted and sent a significant technological and strategic message to Pakistan that they have the capability to hit key military bases within Pakistan, while Pakistan does not have that same capability. Indian air defense systems reportedly intercepted all attempts to penetrate Indian airspace.
- The strike on Nur Khan airbase, near Rawalpindi, carries the most strategic weight. It sits in close proximity to the headquarters of the Strategic Plans Division, which oversees Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. A New York Times article quotes a former U.S. official who says "Pakistan’s deepest fear is of its nuclear command authority being decapitated. The missile strike on Nur Khan could have been interpreted... as a warning that India could do just that."
- The two core issues that sparked this short-lived conflict—Pakistan's de-facto support for the militant terrorist groups operating in the region and the decades-long dispute over Kashmir—remain unresolved. Both militaries remain poised to act with weapons trained on each other across the border.
Recommendations
- Avoid all travel to the border regions, particularly districts near the LoC and the international border.
- In both countries, avoid the vicinity of all demonstrations, particularly those related to the ongoing tensions, due to the potential for clashes and wider unrest.
- Listen to government updates and account for potential disruptions to travel due to evolving measures and announcements.
- Establish contingencies to promote business continuity, including stocking essential goods and ensuring a power supply, due to the potential disruptions to such services in the event of an armed escalation or sustained safety-related curfews.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with local teams in the area to provide:
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Risk assessments
