On 12 March, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced a plan to release 400 million barrels of oil through various Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). These SPRs are held by its 32 member countries that voted unanimously to move forward with the release. President Trump announced the U.S. would release 172 million barrels from its 415-million-barrel reserve. Asia has been affected most heavily by the supply shock due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It relies on the Gulf for some 60% of its oil imports. Japan will release around 80 million barrels, equivalent to a 45-day supply.
The IEA decision comes a day after Iraq shut down its fuel port operations following strikes on several tankers in its territorial waters by explosive-laden, unmanned boats. The only tankers passing through the Strait are Iranian ships headed for China, or ones that receive special approval as has occurred for some Turkish and Chinese-flagged vessels.
President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both commented on the possibility of U.S. Navy escorts of tankers through the Strait. Secretary Bessent said it could happen with an international coalition. While no timeline was given, President Trump has frequently said it would happen "as soon as possible" or "as soon as necessary." It's likely the release of the SPR will push back the timing on possible Navy escorts while the U.S. continues to degrade Iran's military capabilities.
Situation Report
- 12 March: U.S. CENTCOM announced it had hit approximately 6,000 targets in Iran thus far, including 90+ vessels of the Iranian and IRGC Navies, 30 of which were minelaying vessels.
- 12 March: A U.S. KC-135 refueling aircraft crashed in Iraq in an apparent accident with another KC-135. Four of the six crew were reported dead. U.S. CENTCOM confirmed this was not the result of hostile or friendly fire. However, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for downing it for propaganda purposes.
- 12 March: In a written statement, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said the Strait of Hormuz would continue to be closed to pressure Iran’s enemies. Khamenei has not been seen or heard from since he was reportedly injured in an airstrike earlier in the week. He issued additional statements:
- Attacks on Gulf Arab neighbors would continue.
- “We will obtain compensation" from the enemy or "we will destroy its assets to the same extent."
- “I recommend that [Gulf neighbor countries] shut down [U.S.] bases as soon as possible.”
- Suggested opening new fronts for attacks on the U.S.
- 12 March: Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issued a warning on X: “Any aggression against soil of Iranian islands will shatter all restraint. We will abandon all restraint and make the Persian Gulf run with the blood of invaders.” This is likely a reference to possible invasion of Kharg Island in the Strait, which is the site of Iran's primary petroleum export facility.
- 12 March: The governor of Erbil reported the injury of six French soldiers in the Makhmour district after an attack on a joint Peshmerga–French base. According to the governor, no Peshmerga personnel were injured in the incident. French President Emmanuel Macron later confirmed one French soldier was killed.
- 13 March: A projectile from Iran was successfully intercepted above the Dubai International Financial Centre, causing debris to hit a facade of a building. No injuries were reported. This comes two days after Iran threatened banks and financial institutions in the region. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) continues to be Iran's primary target in the Gulf.
- 13 March: A missile heading toward Turkey caused air raid sirens to go off at Incirlik Airbase before being intercepted by NATO. Despite this being the third attack by Iran since 04 March, Turkey is unlikely to retaliate.
Airspace Status
- Bahrain: airspace closed
- Cyprus: airspace open
- Egypt: airspace open
- Iran: airspace closed
- Iraq: airspace closed
- Israel: airspace partially open/restricted
- Jordan: airspace open
- Kuwait: airspace closed
- Lebanon: airspace partially open/restricted
- Oman: airspace open/restricted corridors
- Qatar: airspace partially open/restricted
- Saudi Arabia: airspace open
- Syria: airspace effectively closed
- UAE: airspace partially open
- Restricted access set to expire 0700 ET on 16 March
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