The Houthi conflict is primed for further escalation as Saudi Arabia attempts to impose costs on Sana'a. On 13 October, amid the Houthis' coercive campaign against Saudi energy infrastructure and aviation hubs, the Saudi-led coalition issued an evacuation order to Yemen Petroleum Company sites and the Al-Sabaha power plant in Sana'a. The Saudis then proceeded with a major wave of airstrikes on Houthi energy sites around Sana’a.
In response, the Houthis successfully struck the headquarters of Saudi Aramco in Dhahran, Eastern Province, causing a fire and evacuation of the building. Saudi authorities also claimed to have intercepted three drones and four cruise missiles over the Riyadh region. Four people were injured and 15 homes were damaged from the interception debris. On 14 October, the Houthis confirmed they targeted Aramco's headquarters, King Khalid airport in Riyadh, and an Aramco refinery in Riyadh.
In recent days, it appears that the Houthis have started using more cruise missiles than ballistic missiles. It is unclear if this is a tactical decision based on higher efficacy or if it is a signal that the Houthis have begun to ration their remaining ballistic missile stockpile.
Global Guardian continues to recommend against non-essential travel to Saudi Arabia broadly:
- Global Guardian advises against non-essential travel to Riyadh and all travel to Saudi airports excluding Medina's Prince Mohammad bin Abdulaziz International Airport (MED). Continue to avoid southern Saudi Arabia, including the provinces of Aseer, Jazan, and Najran.
- Reconsider travel to Dammam.
- Travelers in Riyadh seeking to leave the country should consider alternative options such as overland transit to Qatar, Bahrain, or the UAE.
- Firms with operations or personnel in Riyadh or Saudi Arabia broadly should anticipate ongoing flight disruptions.
The flagship Saudi Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference, set to take place from 26-29 October in Riyadh, will proceed as planned per the Saudi government; however, according to Reuters, the conference will adopt a hybrid attendance approach, allowing executives to attend remotely. While the situation remains dynamic, Global Guardian recommends the following posture when assessing attendance and risk mitigation:
Reconsider attending FII if any of the following triggers are met:
- Houthis strike civilian infrastructure in Riyadh beyond the airport or energy infrastructure:
- Hotels
- Conference centers
- Commercial areas
- U.S. Embassy issues an evacuation order for all personnel, their families, or citizens in KSA
- Houthis directly threaten FII
Risk Mitigation
- Utilize alternate airports for travel to Riyadh, including those in the UAE, Qatar, or Bahrain.
- Dammam (DMM) is a less-viable option since it has been targeted, though to a much lesser extent than Riyadh (RUH).
- Riyadh (RUH) should not be considered a viable option.
- Utilize secure overland transportation for all ground movements.
On 12 October, the special authorization requirement for U.S. government employees, previously limited to Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport (RUH), was expanded to cover all Saudi airports. While no attacks have been confirmed, Jeddah King Abdulaziz International Airport (JED) halted all incoming air traffic on both 11 and 13 October, a standard procedure in the event of a security threat. The Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) extended the suspension of operations at Riyadh King Khalid International Airport (RUH) through 17 October. RUH was struck on 10 October and again on 11 October at Terminal 4. King Fahd International Airport, Dammam (DMM) was attacked on the evening of 11 October.
Iran
Meanwhile, the cadence of Iranian strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz has increased in the last week. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre reported 13 incidents in the last week with four vessels attacked on 12 October alone. This comes as the U.S., Israel, and Iran appear to be preparing for further conflict.
Iran conducted four separate ballistic missile exercises in Isfahan, central Iran, on 13 October. The Wall Street Journal also reported that satellite images show Iran hardening its Pickaxe Mountain and Natanz nuclear sites to make raids more difficult. Iranian officials have threatened ground incursions on its neighbors and Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, threatened the UAE specifically, regional data centers and undersea internet cables should conflict resume.
Over the last week, the U.S. increased the pace of its logistics airlift to its forces in the Middle East, likely resupplying air defense and surface-to-surface missiles. The USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group (CSG-9) and the additional Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) are expected to arrive in theater before the end of November.
Global Guardian continues to assess with moderate confidence that a resumption of the Iran conflict is unlikely until after the U.S. midterm elections based on public statements from President Trump and political constraints.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with the following:
- Evacuation planning and execution
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Risk assessments
Click below to contact Global Guardian's 24/7 Operations Center or call us directly at +1 (703) 566-9463.
