The Strait of Hormuz remains the current focal point of the conflict after the U.S. conducted strikes late on 13 March targeting Iran's military infrastructure on Kharg Island, the country's primary energy export hub. This could be in preparation for a ground operation after the U.S. announced the deployment of part of an amphibious ready group, including an attached Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), to the region. The U.S. strike on the island left its oil infrastructure intact, but President Donald Trump warned that if Iran or anyone else interferes with the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, he will reconsider his decision not to destroy it.
After the attack on Kharg Island, Iran threatened retaliation against multiple cities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where it claims U.S. attacks originated: “[The IRGC] considers it its legitimate right to defend its national sovereignty and territory by hitting and targeting the origin of the American enemy missiles in shipping ports, docks, and hideouts of American soldiers sheltered in some cities in the UAE.”
According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. is preparing to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition that will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Many countries, including NATO allies, have either declined or been noncommittal; however, UK Prime Minister Starmer announced on 16 March that the UK is working on a "viable plan" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with allies. This comes after President Trump said it would be "very bad for the future of NATO" if allies don't help secure the Strait.
Relatedly, Saudi Arabia's East–West Pipeline is now moving nearly 7 million bpd from the Gulf to the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and alleviate some of the supply disruptions. Dozens of tankers are now making their way through the Red Sea to the Yanbu terminal to load up on crude oil; however, there is growing concern that the Houthis in Yemen could attempt to disrupt the route. In addition, a spokesman for Iran's joint command (Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters) warned that "The logistical and service centers for the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group in the Red Sea are considered targets by the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran." Yanbu port is the logistical hub for the USS Gerald R. Ford, raising concerns it will be targeted.
Situation Report
- 16 March: Israel is set to approve 450k reservists as the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) prepare a major operation against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
- 16 March: UAE officials temporarily grounded all flights at DXB due to Iran's drone strike destroying a fuel tank. Limited flights resumed several hours later.
- 16 March: Pro-Iranian Iraqi militants claim they killed six U.S. soldiers and injured four more during a missile attack on the U.S. Victoria Base Complex in Baghdad.
- 16 March: Authorities responded to a fire in a petrochemical section of Fujairah, UAE, after an Iranian drone attack.
- 15 March: The IDF confirmed that the brother of an armed man who rammed his truck into a Reform synagogue and preschool in Michigan last week was a Hezbollah commander. He had been killed in an IDF airstrike.
- 15 March: Kuwait said that Iranian drones had targeted its international airport and damaged its radar system.
- 15 March: The U.S. Embassy in Riyadh issued the following alert: We encourage U.S. citizens to depart Saudi Arabia via commercial flights if you can do so safely. Saudi airspace remains open with frequent air traffic restrictions to address continued missile and drone threats. Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam airports remain open and operational, but travelers are advised to check their flight status directly with the airline due to possible delays and cancellations.
- 14–16 March: Saudi Arabia reported intercepting dozens of drones over Riyadh and the Eastern Province over the weekend. Bahrain said it intercepted projectiles over its airspace and arrested individuals on suspicion of aiding Iran, and Qatar said it intercepted several Iranian drones on 15 March. The UAE continues to intercept drones and missiles at a high rate with limited numbers of drones getting through.
- 13 March: The U.S. Department of State ordered non-emergency U.S. government employees and U.S. government family members to leave Oman due to safety risks.
- 13 March: The U.S. deployed 10,000 interceptor drones to the region to counter Iranian drone attacks, according to Secretary of the Army.
- 13 March: Qatar’s interior minister said the country had strategic water reserves to last for several months and food reserves to cover 18 months, amid concerns about the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and reliance on imports.
Airspace Status
- Bahrain: airspace closed
- Cyprus: airspace open
- Egypt: airspace open
- Iran: airspace closed
- Iraq: airspace closed
- Israel: airspace partially open/restricted
- Jordan: airspace open
- Kuwait: airspace closed
- Lebanon: airspace partially open/restricted
- Oman: airspace open/restricted corridors
- Qatar: airspace closed
- Airspace is currently closed to standard traffic following recent missile interceptions. Qatar Airways announced it would be operating a limited number of flights 18–28 March.
- Saudi Arabia: airspace open
- Periodic suspension of flights at Riyadh due to drone activity.
- Syria: airspace effectively closed
- UAE: airspace partially open
- Airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi are experiencing intermittent closures and significant cancellations due to periodic drone strikes.
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