Persian Gulf oil exports in September reached approximately 80% of prewar levels, nearing 13 million barrels per day. The increase is largely due to Saudi Aramco and Kuwait Oil Company following Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's model of using ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. As a result, Riyadh exported 6 million barrels per day in September, the highest volume since the war began. In addition, after being damaged and taken offline on 10 September, Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline resumed operations on 22 September and is currently operating at 3.5 million barrels a day.
On the diplomatic front, the United States (U.S.) and Iran conducted indirect talks via Qatar on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Iran proposed a seven-day plan for a ceasefire and the phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz conditioned on the U.S. returning to the June Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). On 26 September, President Donald Trump said he rejected Iran’s offer. Awaiting a U.S. response, Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf threatened fresh attacks on regional infrastructure on 29 September: “In a region where we cannot sell oil, no one else will sell oil either; or if our security is not guaranteed, no infrastructure will remain safe." Iranian officials indicated they had received an official response on 30 September but declined to share its nature.
Meanwhile in Yemen, the Houthis are sustaining a cross-border pressure campaign against Saudi Arabia while pushing to seize the Kahboub Mountains in Taiz and Lahij governorates. Over the last week, the Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting Houthi drones targeting Riyadh on 25 and 26 September. Amid this backdrop, Saudi Arabia has moved to thaw relations with the UAE as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman Al Saud met with the UAE’s vice president, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed, in Riyadh on 29 September. The outreach will likely help improve coordination among the anti-Houthi forces in Southern Yemen.
Global Guardian recommends against non-essential travel to Saudi Arabia and that firms carefully consider travel to the region amid risk of renewed conflict in the near term.
- Global Guardian strongly advises against all non-essential travel to southern Saudi Arabia, including the provinces of Aseer, Jazan, and Najran.
- Firms with planned travel to Saudi Arabia should closely monitor the situation in Yemen.
Last weekend saw the most intense fighting in Yemen since the 2022 ceasefire. Yemen’s government forces claimed to have conducted 756 military operations against Houthi positions, personnel, and military capabilities across eight fronts, inflicting over 2,300 Houthi casualties. Learning lessons from the Houthis' rapid territorial expansion along the Red Sea coast, the Yemeni Armed Forces are increasingly using drones to disrupt Houthi combat power before it arrives at the frontlines.
Separately, a major aviation incident occurred this morning on a Dubai–Tel Aviv flight, Flydubai FZ1073. The flight plunged thousands of feet, and transmitted code 7500, indicating a hijacking, before making an emergency landing in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia. The precise motive and sequence of events remain under investigation, but Israeli authorities are treating the event as an attempted terrorist attack. According to early reporting, one pilot stabbed the second pilot and attempted to take control of the cockpit, with the plane entering a dive during the struggle. The second pilot, along with the plane's additional crew, overpowered the assailant, stabilized the aircraft, and landed safely.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with the following:
- Evacuation planning and execution
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Risk assessments
Click below to contact Global Guardian's 24/7 Operations Center or call us directly at +1 (703) 566-9463.
