Global Guardian Terror Index Summary & Key Takeaways

The Global Guardian Terror Index provides a snapshot of the current and emerging terrorism threat worldwide. This analysis reviews the state of global terrorism and highlights the countries most at risk from extremist violence in the year ahead.

September 25, 2025 INSIDE THIS ARTICLE, YOU'LL FIND: How to use this map Regional analysis Asia-Pacific Eurasia Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa How businesses and travelers should prepare

Nearly 25 years after 9/11, terrorism remains a persistent and evolving global threat. The start of 2025 brought a stark reminder: on New Year’s Day a vehicular and shooting attack in New Orleans inspired by the Islamic State killed 14 people and injured a further 57. Last year marked a worrying expansion in both the geographic reach and number of incidents targeting civilians. The number of countries recording terrorist events rose to 73—the highest since 2018—and attacks on civilian (non-military/law enforcement) targets reached a post-2018 high. With intelligence services increasingly focused on great-power conflict, the advent of new attack vectors such as drones, and disaffected populations increasingly susceptible to online radicalization, the terror threat is once again dynamic and significant.

The Global Guardian Terror Index (GGTI) is a call to action that provides a snapshot of the current terror threat landscape. The GGTI attributes a categorical risk rating from Low to Extreme. It measures a location's current propensity for terrorism and its trajectory to give decision makers a better understanding of the 2026 security landscape in areas of operation and locations of travel.

It uses historical data from 2018 to July 2025 to count terror incidents, their casualties, fatalities, and associated hostage figures that are publicly available from the Global Terrorism Trends and Analysis Center (GTTAC) Record of Incidents Database (GRID), weighted towards recency. Our analysis begins in 2018 as it represents the transition from the post-9/11 era of group-centric terrorism to the current era of decentralized insurgency, lone-wolf attacks, and online radicalization.

The data are then combined with Global Guardian’s “Combativity” country scores, which serve as a proxy for a country’s level of political violence, to help account for possible data inconsistencies and to provide a more accurate description of the in-country risks.

How to Use this Map

This map is meant to be used as a quick visual reference point. Higher risk ratings indicate that more planning and analysis are required before trips, or that managers with existing operations should consider further evaluating their current security postures to include access control, weapons detection, guards, and active shooter training and planning. The trendline gives decision-makers a forward look into the future terror risk landscape of the country: decision-makers can use this tool to anticipate the security postures needed for future operations or travel. The GGTI measures countries on an aggregate basis, yet the risks within a given country can be geographically dispersed. For example, in Pakistan (Extreme Risk), the terror risk in the province of Waziristan is Extreme while the terror risk in the capital of Islamabad is Moderate.

Proximity matters. Lower-risk countries that share large borders with higher-risk countries warrant extra caution in their border areas. For example, Ghana’s GGTI score is relatively low and has experienced few attacks but the areas that border Burkina Faso are routinely used by terror groups to launch attacks across the border and are higher risk than locations such as Accra.

Timing matters. The associated symbolism of attacks on certain national or religious holidays, as well as high-profile events (sporting, cultural, or political), should be taken into account when planning trips, with increased diligence needed in High or Extreme Risk countries.

Political climate matters. It is also important to be mindful of both global and domestic events, including trials, political speeches, policy announcements, and military or law enforcement actions that can trigger retribution attacks.

Key Findings:

• Global terrorism is not monolithic, with groups, ideologies, targets, sophistication and tactics, techniques, and procedures varying by region and by country.
• Globally, jihadist-motivated terrorism continues to constitute the largest share of attacks, followed by ethno-nationalist or separatist-motivated terrorism.
• One-third of Extreme Risk locations are improving, largely due to groups like the Taliban in Afghanistan and Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria consolidating control of their countries.
• The MENA region features the highest concentration of High and Extreme Risk countries, while the Sahel remains the global epicenter of jihadist terrorism.
• Latin America and Western Europe show the highest subregional concentrations of High and Extreme risk countries outside MENA. We note that narco-terrorist organizations are included in this analysis.
• In the West, the Gaza war is a significant driver of terrorism, terror recruitment, and anti-U.S. sentiment. Relatedly, approximately 30 percent of all 2024 attacks in the West were motivated by antisemitic or anti-Israel sentiment.

REgional Analysis

The Americas

The Americas feature two Extreme Risk countries—Mexico and Colombia—and seven High Risk countries, including the United States (U.S.). In North America, terrorism increasingly overlaps with mass shootings and political violence, reflecting fertile ground for violent extremism. In Latin America, the terror threat is driven primarily by drug cartels, which employ systematic violence, intimidation, and mass-casualty attacks against civilians and officials to coerce governments, control populations, and secure political and economic power.

In North America, most attacks are carried out by individuals acting alone, often motivated by blended grievance-driven ideologies and lack formal group membership. In the U.S., attack methods vary due to the widespread availability of weapons. Foreign jihadist actors and Iranian networks still remain intent on striking the U.S. In 2024, authorities disrupted an ISIS-inspired Election Day mass-shooting plot in Oklahoma. On 01 January 2025, an ISIS-inspired assailant carried out a vehicle-ramming and shooting attack on Bourbon Street in New Orleans, echoing tactics seen in Europe over the last decade. Foreign-backed terrorism also poses a growing risk in Canada, both directly and as a spillover threat to the U.S. Ottawa faces marginal increases in extremist plots and proxy activity linked to foreign actors.

Iran remains an active concern across North America. In June 2025, ahead of U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Tehran reportedly threatened to activate sleeper cells. The Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin shortly thereafter. Over the past five years, U.S. authorities have disrupted more than a dozen Iran-linked plots. While the current ceasefire is in place, a cautious Tehran is unlikely to pursue high-profile attacks abroad that could trigger further retaliation. Rather, near-term threats are expected to come from deniable, low-signature operations using criminal groups as proxies, a tactic consistent with recently disrupted plots in Europe. Primary targets for potential attacks include Iranian dissidents, Jewish/Israeli communities, current and former U.S. officials tied to Iran policy, U.S. cultural symbols, and companies in the defense sector.

In Latin America, cartels recently designated by the U.S. State Department as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) are diversifying their arsenals, increasingly blending criminal and terrorist tactics. Commercial drones—widely used in Ukraine—are now being employed by cartels and gangs to deploy improvised explosive devices (IEDs) against other gangs, as well as the government. In Mexico, improvised explosive devices have been discovered in 25 of 32 states, and the rate at which police are seizing undetonated devices is increasing. In Colombia, insurgents continue to rely on improvised explosives, and a 2025 bombing near the mayor’s office in Florencia underscored the growing risk to urban centers. Civilians already account for roughly half of IED-related deaths nationwide in Colombia; the figure is likely similar in Mexico.

Asia-Pacific (APAC)

The APAC region includes nine High and Extreme Risk countries. The region also features the highest number of countries seeing declines in terrorism, including India, Indonesia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, and Thailand. East Asia, Central Asia and Australasia are the lowest terror risk subregions. In contrast, South Asia and Southeast Asia face more acute risks, driven by insurgencies in Pakistan, Myanmar, the Philippines, India, and Thailand. Improvised explosives are the most common attack method in APAC, followed by stabbing.

Pakistan remains the region’s most terror-impacted country, with over 1,042 incidents in 2024, a 50 percent increase from 2023. Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) remain the most active groups, conducting attacks primarily in Waziristan and Balochistan. Persistent instability in these provinces fuels spillover risks for Afghanistan and Iran.

In contrast, the Philippines has achieved four straight years of declining terrorist activity. In June 2025, Basilan Province was officially declared free of Abu Sayyaf (ASG), following earlier successes in the Zamboanga Peninsula. The government’s consolidation of gains underscores a broader downward trajectory for jihadist influence across the southern islands and the Malaysian Sulu Archipelago.

Australia endured its deadliest terrorism year in 2024, with six attacks leaving eight dead and 16 wounded. Canberra raised its national terror threat level to “probable” in August 2024, and in July 2025 expelled Iran’s ambassador after intelligence linked Tehran to arson attacks on Jewish community sites in Sydney and Melbourne. This underscores the continued reach of Iranian state-linked terror networks into Western democracies.

EurasiA

The Eurasia region includes nine High Risk countries with increasing risks in both Russia and Germany. In 2024, the region recorded its first year-over-year increase in both terror incidents and fatalities since the collapse of the Islamic State caliphate in Iraq and Syria, reversing the decline that had held since 2018. Russia is currently the most impacted country in the region, followed by Germany and Turkey.

Over the last seven and a half years, Turkey has seen a sharp decline in terrorist activity—eight deaths from four attacks in 2024 as compared to its peak of 268 deaths from 182 attacks in 2018—and, in the first half of 2025, reported no incidents. This decline is principally linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) peace process and disarmament, signaling a potential inflection point after four decades of insurgency.

In Western Europe, the primary attack methods are “lone wolf” stabbings and car rammings. Vehicular attacks remain a particular concern in Germany with two recent incidents, including a ramming in Munich on 13 February 2025 and a two-car ramming at a Christmas market in Magdeburg on 20 December 2024. The European Union reported 24 jihadist terrorist attacks in 2024—up from 14 in 2023. The number of foiled terror plots for the same period doubled. State-backed threats from Russia and Iran have also risen, with both actors leveraging criminal syndicates as proxies across the continent.