In Global Guardian's "Your Questions Answered" series, our experts address pressing questions on current events, providing insight and analysis on the issues that impact your personal safety, business operations, and travel security.
Read below for insights from our analysts and subject matter experts, and get in touch with our team for further support and guidance.
This week’s question
November 19, 2025
Why did the U.S. label the Cartel de los Soles an FTO, and what does it mean for tensions with Venezuela?
Global Guardian’s response
Provided by: Global Guardian Intelligence Team
Over the weekend, the United States (U.S.) took several steps to enhance pressure on the Maduro regime, signaling a final chance for the Venezuelan leader to negotiate his exit.
On 16 November, the USS Gerald R. Ford supercarrier arrived in the Caribbean Sea, bolstering the regional U.S. military posture, already its largest deployment in decades. The same day, U.S. Department of State announced plans to designate the Cartel de los Soles—a criminal network composed of Venezuelan officials that the U.S. alleges Maduro leads—as a terrorist organization. In the eyes of the Trump administration, the proposed designation of the Cartel de Los Soles as a terrorist organization provides legal justification to utilize kinetic strikes against top members of the Maduro regime believed to be involved in organized crime.
Sunday's announcements are a continuation of a U.S. campaign with the stated goal of stopping drug trafficking—one that has included 21 lethal strikes in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean by U.S. forces, destroying 22 alleged drug-trafficking boats and killing 83 people.
Yet, countering drug trafficking does not require the presence of a carrier strike group and a total of over 15,000 servicemen. According to military experts, the current force posture is less than a third of what would be required for a ground invasion, suggesting invasion is not the Trump administration’s goal. Rather, the intent appears to increase pressure on President Maduro to generate further negotiating leverage or to pressure him to step down.
Given the increased pace of counter-narcotics operations, the favorable regional and domestic political environment, and the massive force build-up, Global Guardian assesses that U.S. strikes on Venezuelan soil are increasingly likely in the near future. It is likely that the U.S. will strike military and government infrastructure across the country, but especially on the northern coastal states and near Caracas, where regime power is concentrated.
Key Takeaways
- The U.S. is ramping up its counter-drug trafficking operations in both the Caribbean and the Pacific.
- It is increasingly likely that the next phase of counter-trafficking operations includes strikes on Venezuelan soil.
- Recent Trump administration plans to designate the Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization increase the possibility that the U.S. will strike Venezuelan government targets with the intent of toppling the Nicolás Maduro regime.
- Global Guardian recommends against Americans traveling to Venezuela, and those who are in-country should consider leaving immediately.
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