In Global Guardian's "Your Questions Answered" series, our experts address pressing questions on current events, providing insight and analysis on the issues that impact your personal safety, business operations, and travel security.
Read below for insights from our analysts and subject matter experts, and get in touch with our team for further support and guidance.
This week’s question
November 12, 2025
What's happening in Mali with JNIM's offensive, and what does it portend for regional stability and the global terrorism threat?
Global Guardian’s response
Provided by: Global Guardian Intelligence Team
Since September 2025, JNIM—an Al Qaeda affiliate active in the region—has been conducting an effective fuel blockade by sealing off major highways used by tankers to transport fuel from neighboring Senegal and Cote d’Ivoire to the landlocked Sahel country.
Persistent blackouts continue to present security, health, and logistical challenges to wide swaths of the Malian populace. Malians unable to go without fuel have been confronted with multi-hour waits at gas stations. In response, the Malian government suspended classes for all schools and universities nationwide as the crisis deepened. Several Western countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, and Italy, have advised their citizens to leave Mali immediately.
The blockade—while tactically significant—also plays into a larger and demonstrably effective JNIM strategy. JNIM is seeking to undermine state authority and replace it with its own parallel governance structures where the state has retreated. The group's strategy mirrors the approach successfully employed by the Taliban in Afghanistan and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria before their respective takeovers—demonstrating to local populations that the government cannot provide basic services or protection, while positioning themselves as a viable alternative.
The expanding JNIM threat has direct implications for businesses operating in the region. Companies with assets and personnel in coastal West African countries—particularly those bordering the Sahel (Senegal, Mauritania, Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria)—should immediately assess their exposure to jihadist expansion.
The situation in Mali serves as a warning signal. JNIM's economic warfare tactics—fuel blockades, infrastructure attacks, and supply disruptions—could be replicated in other countries as the group expands. Organizations that wait for crises to develop before implementing security measures will find themselves dangerously unprepared.
Key Takeaways
- JNIM's expansion follows the ISIL playbook of exploiting governance vacuums and will likely continue gathering momentum until confronted by a capable regional or international coalition.
- The involvement of more capable regional actors—potentially including Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Morocco, Algeria, or others—will be necessary to reverse JNIM's gains, though political will for such intervention remains unclear.
- Companies operating in coastal West Africa should urgently assess exposure to expanding jihadist influence and ensure robust evacuation and shelter-in-place contingency plans are in place.
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