Gray Zone Conflict and Deniability: How to Prepare for Invisible Threats to Your Business

Once characterized by overt military aggression between nations, the traditional paradigm of international conflict is rapidly evolving. In recent years, a new theater of conflict has emerged, defined by “gray zone” tactics. Hostile nations today frequently avoid open warfare, instead employing covert actions with plausible deniability that blur the lines between peace and war. Businesses and critical infrastructure are often caught in the crosshairs.

The private sector has become a new front in geopolitical conflict, evidenced by programs like China’s Volt Typhoon cyberespionage mission and Russia’s recruitment of European saboteurs through Telegram. Global Guardian’s Worldwide Threat Assessments (WWTA) have consistently highlighted this emerging front, tracking the growing sophistication and frequency of gray zone activities. 

As nations leverage unattributable methods of war against the private sector to undermine adversaries and exert influence, there are profound implications for global businesses. Here, we explore how to prepare your business for these invisible threats.

Timeline of Escalation: Deniability from 2020 to 2025

While gray zone conflict predates 2020, the threat landscape has shifted in significant ways since Global Guardian began tracking and analyzing these tactics:

2020

• Amid the global COVID-19 pandemic, state actors ramped up media manipulation to suppress dissent and sow division both at home and abroad.
• Huawei, the Chinese telecom giant, reportedly engaged in espionage against overseas competitors, seeking strategic and economic advantage.

2021

• Iran expanded the use of proxy militias in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, targeting U.S. contractors and regional allies like Saudi Arabia.
• “Vaccine diplomacy” emerged as China, Russia, and India used vaccine distribution to build geopolitical goodwill.
• The SolarWinds cyberattack, attributed to Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, exposed critical vulnerabilities in global software supply chains, signaling an escalation in state-sponsored cyber operations.

2022

• Ransomware attacks against private sector companies increased dramatically, reflecting the growing financial and strategic stakes of cybercrime.
• The spread of low-cost drone technology complicated security operations, offering non-state actors new surveillance and strike capabilities.
• Chinese exportation of fentanyl precursors and xylazine contributed to a worsening opioid crisis in the West. The resulting rise in addiction and cartel violence drew civilian populations into the fallout of state-enabled gray zone activity, further destabilizing societies.

2023

• Global Guardian’s WWTA highlighted the emergence of paralegal maritime militias in China—civilian fishing fleets acting as unofficial naval extensions.
• Kamikaze drones deployed in Ukraine underscored the increased availability of advanced weaponry to non-state actors backed by governments.
• The expanding role of Private Military Companies (PMCs) across global conflict zones reflected the ongoing privatization and decentralization of warfare.

2024

• China and Russia became more aggressive in targeting critical infrastructure, factories, and businesses through covert and deniable operations.
• Sophisticated cyber threats such as Volt Typhoon and Salt Typhoon emerged, enabling deeper digital penetration of Western networks.
• Encrypted platforms like Telegram became command hubs for coordinating proxy activities and influence campaigns, further blurring attribution.

2025 and beyond

• Irregular warfare has become a deliberate, persistent strategy for both state and non-state actors.
• The traditional boundaries between peace and conflict have eroded, demanding a reevaluation of how governments and businesses assess, prepare for, and respond to evolving security threats.

Looking Ahead: The Next Phase of Gray Zone Conflict

As the Axis of Disorder—Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea—deepens its commitment to irregular warfare, the West faces an increasingly complex threat environment. These state actors are unlikely to retreat from tactics that blur the boundaries between peace and conflict. Instead, we are entering an era defined by “gray rhinos”—highly probable yet overlooked threats—that target both infrastructure and the public psyche. From parcel bombings designed to disrupt logistics networks to the use of astroturfing campaigns to incite targeted violence against executives, the new frontier of gray zone warfare weaponizes civilian spaces and everyday technologies with deniable intent and strategic precision.

Emerging vectors such as automotive cyberattacks, environmental terrorism, and maritime obstruction (blockshipping) further illustrate how conventional systems—from vehicles to forests to shipping lanes—can be turned into tools of sabotage. Cars may soon be hijacked remotely; wildfires sparked deliberately during peak burn seasons could paralyze entire regions; and ships may be sunk or steered into chokepoints to halt commerce for weeks. These tactics exploit existing vulnerabilities, deliver asymmetric impacts, and obscure attribution—making response and deterrence increasingly difficult. In this evolving gray zone, vigilance, resilience, and cross-sector coordination are no longer optional—they are foundational to national and corporate security.

Anatomy of the Modern Gray Zone Threat

The gray zone threat today is pervasive and is designed to be deniable and create confusion, especially for private-sector victims. They’re carried out through several domains:

• Cyber-physical attacks: State actors or their proxies can leverage cyber attacks to cause financial damage and disruption. China’s Volt Typhoon is a pointed example of how state-backed Chinese hackers are “positioning” themselves within American infrastructure systems to prepare for potential future attacks that could inflict real harm on American citizens and communities by disrupting the power grid, shutting down dams, and much more. In May 2025, it was revealed that unlisted communication devices have been found in some Chinese solar power inverters, batteries, heat pumps, and electric vehicle chargers.
• Sabotage and arson: Russian proxy actors have leveraged open platforms like Telegram to recruit saboteurs to take unsophisticated, brute action against private sector targets. Using decentralized recruitment methods and encrypted communication channels makes it difficult to attribute attacks, elevating the degree of deniability after recruited saboteurs burn or otherwise sabotage targets.
• Misinformation/disruption: Localized unrest campaigns aim to foment social divisions and undermine confidence in institutions. State actors often leverage digital platforms to spread false narratives that incite unrest and target key individuals, including private sector executives. These campaigns are inherently deniable due to the decentralized nature of social media and the rapid spread of false information.
• Proxy violence: Criminal groups and PMCs are increasingly acting on state orders, giving political leaders a greater ability to exert influence and destabilize regions without directly deploying their own forces and maintaining a degree of plausible deniability. Proxy violence can create significant security risks for businesses operating in regions with robust criminal networks both at home and abroad.

Why Private Organizations Are Prime Targets Now

Private organizations have become increasingly attractive targets for states and their proxies engaged in gray zone conflict for several reasons.

• Companies control vital infrastructure and data: From energy grids and telecommunications networks to financial systems and sensitive intellectual property, private assets are essential to both national economies and daily life. Disrupting or compromising them can have far-reaching consequences, making private firms a high-value target for adversaries seeking to inflict damage or gain advantage in cutting-edge technologies.
• Executives are both symbolic and strategic targets: As prominent figures in critical industries, executives represent the power and influence of a targeted organization and, by extension, its nation’s leaders. Kidnapping, targeting, or harming them can sow chaos, damage reputation, and disrupt operations.
• Attacks on firms are cleaner: Gray zone tactics—such as cyber attacks, sabotage, and disinformation campaigns—are often cheaper, less provocative, and more effective than traditional military action. State actors can pursue their goals with a lower risk of escalating tensions.
• Attribution is muddy: With the complexities of cyberattacks and the use of proxy actors, it’s exceedingly difficult to identify the real perpetrators of attacks on private sector targets. That hinders the targeted companies' ability to seek legal recourse, manage PR, and even submit insurance claims, especially for publicly traded companies.

How to Prepare: Planning for Invisible Threats

Private organizations must adopt a proactive and comprehensive security posture to counter the evolving threats of gray zone conflict. Some actionable steps your organization may take include:

1. Intelligence monitoring: Robust intelligence monitoring capabilities should provide executives and employees with threat monitoring that assesses and analyzes emerging threats, tracks relevant threat actors, and advises on potential impacts on the organization's assets and operations. Intelligence monitoring should offer actionable insights tailored to both daily operations and long-term strategic planning.
2. Vulnerability assessments: Conduct comprehensive third-party vulnerability assessments to determine weaknesses across people, facilities, and technology stacks. Assessments should analyze potential points of exploitation and provide mitigation recommendations.
3. Red-team exercises: Red team exercises—simulated attacks that mimic real-world adversaries—should include both cyber and physical tabletop drills to realistically test your defenses against gray zone threats like misinformation or infrastructure sabotage. Originating from military war-gaming, these exercises challenge your security protocols and response plans, helping identify vulnerabilities and improve readiness.
4. Integrated response plans: Developing integrated response plans that outline clear procedures for managing security incidents, crisis communications, and ensuring business continuity will support your organization’s preparedness.

To illustrate a strong gray zone threat response, let’s explore a scenario in which a logistics company finds its warehouse burned. Telegram chatter points to malign actors, but local police say it’s accidental. Meanwhile, ransomware has locked the firm’s shipping software. Who do you call?

This company faces a multi-faceted threat that requires a coordinated response. There is both physical damage and a cyberattack, and the ambiguous attribution suggests it’s a gray zone operation.

In this instance, the company would benefit from a security partner capable of providing timely intelligence, assessing the credibility of Telegram chatter, and offering context on the actors involved. Moreover, the partner should have cybersecurity expertise to investigate the ransomware attack and recover data, and emergency response abilities to coordinate with local authorities to investigate the arson and implement measures to protect other facilities and personnel.

The New Reality Requires New Readiness

The proliferation of gray zone conflict represents a fundamental change in the nature of geopolitical conflict and international security. Businesses have a responsibility to adapt to this new reality, lest they expose themselves to significant risks. The world has changed, but the tools to defend against these evolving threats exist.

By implementing proactive security measures, partnering with experienced security providers, and rethinking how you plan for what you can’t see coming, your organization can improve your resilience and operate with confidence.

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