Situation update

• As the situation deteriorates and Russian forces continue to expand targets and ground control within Ukraine, freedom of movement is becoming more and more restricted. The window to leave Ukraine is closing. Anyone still in the country who wishes to leave needs to do so as soon as possible. 

Situation update

• Peace talks are underway at the Ukraine-Belarus border between representatives of Ukraine and Russia. These talks are unlikely to bear fruit. 

Situation update

Now on day two, Russia's blitzkrieg into Ukraine is continuing after meeting some resistance. It is clear that a regime change in Kyiv and the rapid destruction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are Moscow's immediate objectives.  

Situation update

Around 06:00 local time, Russia commenced a full-scale assault against Ukraine, involving air and missile strikes, as well as a ground invasion from the north, south, and east. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the goal of the operation was to “demilitarize” and "de-nazify" Ukraine. Ukraine has declared martial law and called on its citizens to resist.   

Situation update

On Monday, President Putin formally recognized the independence of the breakaway Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) and the Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) in eastern Ukraine and deployed the Russian military on a "peacekeeping" mission to secure the separatist-controlled territory. The conflict has entered a new phase as the status quo has been changed. Ukraine is on high alert for any further incursion by Russian troops.

Situation update

Russian pretexts for active military involvement are taking shape as the conflict heats up in the Donbas and civilians in the separatist territory are ordered to evacuate to Russia. Russia formally responded to the U.S. diplomatic proposals by threatening "military-technical measures" should its demands not be met.

Situation update

Despite the conflicting reports of a partial Russian withdrawal, tensions have risen over the past several days. A resolution to the situation remains elusive as the Kremlin puts out mixed signals regarding its intentions. 

Situation update

Situation update

Updated February 11, 2022, 2:30 EST

Situation update

• According to U.S. intelligence, Russia has reached 70% of the forces it would need for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The same report warned of as many as 50,000 civilian deaths in the event of a Russian assault on Kyiv. This comes as updated satellite images now show that the Russian field army that was stationed near Yelnya has moved to a town 50 kilometers from the Ukraine border. The buildup is likely to continue under the auspices of the ongoing Russian-Belorussian "Allied Resolve" military exercise that is not set to conclude until 20 February. 
• On 07 February, the United Kingdom diverted 350 Royal Marines from Norway to Poland and Germany pledged to send 350 more troops to Lithuania.
• Russian President Putin met with French President Macron on Monday. While no agreement was reached, Putin stated the discussion was, “rather feasible for creating a foundation for our further steps.” Meanwhile, in Washington, German Chancellor Scholz met with U.S. President Biden to discuss a cohesive response to the ongoing crisis. President Biden vowed to shut down the Nord Stream 2 pipeline - which is set to bring Russian fuel to Germany - if President Putin issues the order to invade Ukraine.
• To combat the increase in Russian cyber operations in Ukraine, Microsoft released an updated report on the techniques, tactics, and procedures (TTPs) used by ACTINIUM, a Russian FSB-linked threat group based in Crimea. The group is showing increased activity using attachments in phishing emails that imitate official correspondence to gain access to networks in Ukraine.
• Russian ships are on track to arrive at the Black Sea between 08 February and 11 February for naval exercises, constituting the largest Russian naval grouping in the area since the fall of the USSR.

Advice

• Global Guardian recommends against non-essential travel to Ukraine.
• Expats should consider leaving Ukraine while commercial flights remain available.
• Those who remain in-country should prepare emergency supplies. 
• Secure your assets and prepare your emergency evacuation plan.

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