“Our No. 1 concern right now are people with grievances who become negatively energized on social media and will seek to carry out copycat threats."
In an article in the Society for Human Resource Management, Global Guardian VP of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich weighed in on how the shooting of UHC CEO Brian Thompson is changing how organizations address their security, and how duty of care providers can help.
During the evening hours on 20 December 2024, an unknown assailant drove his vehicle at full speed into the Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany, killing at least one person and injuring upwards of 80 more in a possible terror attack.
Global Guardian's December Risk Barometer, published earlier this month, highlighted the increased risk to Christmas markets, religious gatherings, and other large public events over the holiday season as individuals or groups see them as an opportunity to conduct symbolically valuable attacks.
“I think Mexico might start planning for a worst-case scenario and you will probably see a bit of a crackdown along the border […] But I don’t know if they will be able to hold migration and certainly not be able to stop drug trafficking.”
In an article for Border Report, Global Guardian's Director of Intelligence, Michael Ballard, discussed the tense relations between the United States and Mexico as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office in January. He provided insight into how these tensions could unfold during negotiations and their potential impact at the border.
“We need to look at their digital footprint…And then we need to be able to put in place informed digital online threat management and have the entire suite of services ready to support them.”
On CNN, Global Guardian's VP of Client Risk Management, Seth Krummrich, discussed the significant shift in corporate security before and after the death of UnitedHealthcare’s CEO and highlighted how Global Guardian is partnering with clients worldwide to reevaluate their security strategies for protecting both executives and employees.
“You can ride the risk and hope nothing happens. But if it does, you have a much bigger problem emotionally, financially and optics-wise for the brand than if you invest in security up front.”
In a new article on CNN regarding how corporate executives and their organizations are reacting to the shooting of CEO Brian Thompson, Global Guardian's Seth Krummrich described how requests for security have skyrocketed and what his concerns are going forward.
“How does a company strike the right approach in preventing the low likelihood, but very high consequence of an attack on a CEO?”
Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner and COO Mark Post contributed insights to a new Harvard Business Review article that examines a critical framework for assessing and mitigating risks faced by corporate leadership—an issue brought into sharp focus following last week’s tragic killing of UnitedHealthcare’s CEO.
Featuring practical questions to assess threats, vulnerabilities, and potential consequences, this article is a must-read for business leaders and boards seeking to strengthen the security of their organizations.
"If you have a global workforce in Eastern Europe right now, you need to be thinking about evacuation. If you have employees that live in California or the West or Arizona, where wildfires are getting bigger and bigger, you better have an answer for how you're going to evacuate your employees if those fires get out of control. If you live in Florida, Taiwan or Japan, or you have employees there, you better have a tsunami and or hurricane plan to get your people out of that if they get stuck."
Global Guardian CEO and President Dale Buckner sat down with Lee Hafner of Employee Benefit News to discuss the roles that both employers and employees have to play in terms of preparing for inevitable crisis and disaster in the months and years to come.
"You may think it's overkill, but as a leader, every decision you make can affect someone negatively, and that can create an enemy. In today's connected world, no one is truly immune from being targeted."
In an age where personal information is increasingly accessible, prioritizing security has become an essential part of protecting high-profile individuals and executives. CEO Dale Buckner sat down with WUSA-TV’s Katie Lusso at Global Guardian headquarters to discuss the trends our Operations Team has observed following the tragic killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson.
"...he fielded calls from companies looking to send armed guards to accompany executives attending conferences in New York and other U.S. cities this week."
In the Wall Street Journal, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner addresses how the corporate security industry is responding to the tragic killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in New York by strengthening executive security measures and re-evaluating long-term protection protocols in the face of an increasingly dynamic threat landscape in America.
In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.
The rise of self-defense groups in Haiti has emerged as a response to the general insecurity driven by rampant gang activity. Despite the recent deployment of some 1,000 Kenyan police, risks from violence, kidnapping, and extortion are increasing, particularly in the capital, Port-au-Prince, where some 95 gangs control 85% of the city.
Conditions have deteriorated to the point that Doctors Without Borders (MSF) suspended its activities in the capital on 19 November until further notice, due to several threats and attacks made against its patients and staff by police officers. Both the French and U.S. embassies closed for several days at the end of November due to violence. Since 11 November, at least 150 people have been killed, 92 others injured and some 20,000 more displaced in Port-au-Prince amid gang clashes, with gangs now controlling all the main roads in and out of the city. Flight operations at Port-au-Prince's international airport were suspended from 11 November, when gangs opened fire on a Spirit Airlines flight, until at least 11 December.
In the last several months, the formation of self-defense groups has gained momentum as residents seek to reclaim their neighborhoods from gang control. These vigilante groups have emerged from communities that feel abandoned by state authorities and police forces, which have been unable or unwilling to provide adequate security. The "Bwa Kale" movement is one such example, characterized by vigilantism where community members take matters into their own hands against suspected gang members. Since April 2023, over 350 suspected gang members have reportedly been killed by vigilante mobs as communities react to the pervasive threat of violence, extortion, and kidnapping. On 19 November, at least 45 Viv Ansanm coalition gang members were killed in clashes with police and vigilantes in Pétion-Ville, Canapé Vert, Boudon, Route Frères, Christ-Roi, Poste Marchant and Delmas, Port-au-Prince, after the gang attempted to invade the area. Police continue to go after Viv Ansanm coalition leader Jimmy “Barbeque” Cherizier.
This situation is exacerbated by a political crisis that has left a power vacuum, allowing gangs to act with impunity. The United Nations Security Council has responded by deploying a Multinational Security Support (MSS) force, including Kenyan police officers, to assist Haitian National Police (PNH) in restoring order. However, this intervention has not yet significantly curbed the violence or improved security conditions on the ground.
The rise of self-defense groups in Haiti can be compared to the autodefensas that emerged in Mexico's Jalisco and Michoacán states around 2013. In both cases, local populations formed armed groups in response to the inability of state authorities to protect them from violent criminal organizations.
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The pervasive control exerted by gangs over critical infrastructure such as ports and transport routes in Port-au-Prince further complicates the security landscape. Gangs have effectively taken control of main roads leading into and out of the city, collecting passage fees and creating an environment where travel is fraught with danger. This control extends to Toussaint L'Ouverture International Airport, which was temporarily closed due to gunfire incidents involving commercial flights.
The rise of self-defense groups is thus both a symptom and a response to this broader context of violence. As gang clashes continue—resulting in thousands of deaths and displacements—the formation of these groups reflects a desperate attempt by communities to assert control over their safety amidst widespread chaos.
Key Takeaways
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Growing jihadist threats, Russian hybrid warfare, and spillover from the conflict in the Middle East join extant domestic tensions in making Europe’s holiday season higher risk than normal. On 28 November, Germany’s Interior Minister Nancy Faeser called for “great vigilance” in the upcoming holiday season. Similarly, Canada recently updated travel advisories for five Western European countries, and at least 10 EU countries have announced temporary border restrictions for December and January, citing increased terror risk.
With the return of great power conflict, attention and resources have been shifted away from the War on Terror. But jihadist groups have the upper hand in multiple conflicts. On 27 November, the Al-Qaeda-linked Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) commenced an unexpected offensive against regime forces, rapidly capturing the government stronghold of Aleppo. In the Sahel, various jihadist groups, including Islamic State affiliates, have extended their territory in a series of victories over local security forces. Additionally, the Islamic State Khorasan branch (IS-K) has successfully conducted multiple attacks over the last year, including the attack on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow in March, which killed 145 people and wounded over 500 others.
Jihadist success in regional conflicts can facilitate and incentivize attacks in the West. Terror networks in Somalia, for example, have connections in Sweden and Italy, while networks in Burkina Faso and Mali have connections in France and Belgium. These groups see the holiday season in Europe as an opportunity to conduct symbolically valuable attacks on soft targets such as Christmas markets, religious services, and other large public gatherings. To that end, Islamic State chat rooms have been increasingly active with specific references to attacks during the holidays.
Moscow perceives itself to be in existential competition with the West and has increasingly pursued the use of sabotage, assassinations, cyber war, and disinformation campaigns to create divides in European society, weakening its resistance to Russian influence and coercion. Russia’s current attempt to maximize its position in Ukraine ahead of likely negotiations is likely to translate into a higher rate of hybrid operations in Europe.
The increased terror risk is partially attributable to spillover from the conflict in the Middle East. Widespread sympathy for Palestinians and condemnation of Israeli actions in Europe is in friction with the largely pro-Israeli policies of European governments. The intersection of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with Jihadist narratives and the “legitimization” of targeting Europeans creates an environment highly conducive to lone-wolf terrorists. Russian disinformation campaigns have also exacerbated the polarization surrounding the Israel-Palestine conflict
Sentiments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East are highly polarized and have led to multiple—at times violent—confrontations between pro-Palestine protesters, European security forces, and pro-Israel protesters. On 08 November in Amsterdam, a series of provocative actions between Israeli Maccabi Tel Aviv fans and local Muslim and Arab residents culminated in a night of violence, leading to five hospitalizations and the evacuation of the Israeli fans. Dozens of pro-Palestine protests in Europe over the past year have escalated into violence as governments limit protest approvals over concerns of antisemitism.
All the dynamics above contribute to extant domestic tensions manifest in increased unrest, political volatility, and the growing success of far-right and far-left parties across Europe. A combination of economic inequality, inflation, and demographic changes leave the continent charged for unrest. The triggers for this unrest are varied and difficult to predict. Recently, flooding in Spain, a stabbing attack in the UK, and a football match in the Netherlands have all instigated mass unrest.
As threat vectors converge in Europe this holiday season the risks of conflict, terror, and destabilization are twofold. A flashpoint in any one of these domains—such as a terror attack or violent unrest—presents acute threats to travelers. But a flashpoint in one area also increases the risk of setting off a trigger in another. As the baseline risks for the continent continue to grow, all risk-multiplying events going forward—including the holiday season—are likely to be more dangerous than in years past.
Key TakeawaysConvergent threat vectors in Europe make contingency planning more important than ever. The holiday season is a risk multiplier that increases the value of terror attacks, civil unrest, and hybrid warfare. |
