September Risk Barometer

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Escalating Russia–Azerbaijan Confrontations Heighten Regional Risk

Tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan remain at a post-Soviet peak as of September 2025. A series of lethal incidents, mutual detentions, and dueling economic measures are straining relations, even as both sides cooperate on urgent concerns such as the Caspian Sea crisis. Trade flows persist, but threats of escalation—military, economic, and diplomatic—continue to mount.

Recommendations:

• Reconsider travel to the border regions between Russia and Azerbaijan.
• Russian and Azeri nationals should reconsider travel to Azerbaijan and Russia respectively.

Key Developments

1. Military, Security & Moves

• Downing of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 (Dec 25, 2024): A Russian Pantsir-S air defense system downed the Baku-Grozny flight over Kazakh airspace, killing 38. Moscow initially blamed “bird strikes,” then gave a private apology but never admitted direct responsibility amid conflicting public statements referencing Ukrainian UAV attacks. Baku is preparing international legal action, demanding admission of guilt, prosecution of those responsible, and compensation.
• Russian Drone Strikes on SOCAR Energy Assets: On August 6 and 8, Russian drones struck a newly established Trans-Balkan gas corridor and a critical SOCAR oil depot in Ukraine’s Odesa Oblast, destroying tanks, halting Azerbaijani gas imports to Ukraine, and injuring staff. These strikes forced immediate cessation of gas flows and highlighted the regional energy vulnerability, as well as Azerbaijan’s growing links to Kyiv.
• Retaliatory Arrests and Targeting of Diasporas: After two Azerbaijani men died following beatings in Russian police custody in Yekaterinburg (June 27), Baku detained over 10 Russians alleged to be involved in organized crime and money laundering. Russian police and administrative agencies have increased pressure on wealthy Azeri figures, with high-profile deportations (such as Elshan Ibrahimov), revocations of citizenship, and intensified inspections targeting family members of key Azerbaijani officials (such as unpaid property taxes by President Aliyev’s son in Moscow).
• Diplomatic and Cultural Freeze: Azerbaijan has shuttered Russian cultural centers (including the closure of the Russian Cultural Diplomacy Agency and Sputnik in Baku), skipped key Russia-led regional summits (e.g., the CIS Interior Ministers' meeting), and broadcast footage of detained Russian nationals.

2. Economic and Energy Impacts

• Caspian Sea Crisis & Port Disruption: Amid rising climate-driven water loss and Russia's Volga River dams (accused by Baku of deepening the crisis), both governments convened in April to form a joint monitoring group. Port Baku operations have suffered due to shallow waters: cargo capacity has been reduced, and shipping costs have risen, with throughput via Dubendi terminal down to 810,000 tons (first half of 2025) from 880,000 tons the previous year.
• Energy Infrastructure Vulnerability: Attacks in Ukraine demonstrated the exposure of Azerbaijani offshore and pipeline assets to Russian strikes. The Odesa attacks came days after SOCAR signed its first gas agreement with Ukraine’s Naftogaz; the new corridor accounted for a small but symbolically critical share of Ukrainian energy imports before being interrupted.
• Trade and Economic Relations: Despite heated rhetoric, neither side is enacting broad economic disengagement. Bilateral trade remains steady, and central banks report no ongoing decline. However, Russian politicians threaten boycotts of Azerbaijani goods should Baku deepen its Ukraine alignment or lift its arms embargo on Kyiv. The European Commission and Parliament remain divided over energy ties with Baku due to these geopolitical tensions and human rights criticisms.

3. Shifting Alliances and Strategic Postures

• Azerbaijan-Ukraine Alignment: As a response to the Odesa attacks, President Aliyev allocated $2 million in humanitarian aid for Ukrainian energy infrastructure and threatened to formally lift the arms embargo on Ukraine. This policy shift, and ongoing rumors about Azeri weapons making their way to Kyiv, has angered Moscow and drawn warnings from Russian officials.
• Azerbaijan-Armenia Rapprochement: In a region-altering move, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a joint declaration in Washington, DC (08 August) mediated by President Trump, paving the way for a future peace agreement. The deal signals a rebalancing of South Caucasus power away from Russia, with Turkey and the U.S. gaining influence while Moscow and Tehran find themselves sidelined.
• Russian Media and Political Rhetoric: Russian state-linked outlets are agitating for severe action (economic or military) against Baku in response to its “Russophobic” posture, while official government statements try to underscore the strategic necessity of continued economic ties.
• Regional Sentiment: With Moscow bogged down in Ukraine, Azerbaijan is increasingly emboldened to pursue an autonomous foreign policy, evident in its energy diplomacy and its resumption of territorial contests in Nagorno-Karabakh—further straining Russian leverage.

Risk Assessment

• Military escalation: Persistently high risk of reciprocal direct attacks on each other’s assets and open threats.
• Energy/economic shocks: High risk; disruption to supply chains, port logistics, and direct infrastructure attacks.
• Diplomatic isolation: Complete breakdown except around technical cooperation. Russia’s South Caucasus position receding as Baku and Yerevan shift westward.
• Domestic/civil risk: High, especially for ethnic diaspora, businesses, and those with cross-border assets.

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