Tensions between India and Pakistan are again rising following successive terrorist attacks in New Delhi and Islamabad, respectively. On 10 November, a vehicle exploded outside Delhi's historic Red Fort, killing at least ten people and wounding dozens more. Hours before the blast, police in Jammu and Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, and Haryana conducted multiple coordinated raids, arresting at least seven individuals in a major counter-terror operation disrupting a "white-collar" cell of doctors and academics.
Police found firearms and nearly 3,000kg of bomb-making material during the raids. A statement from police said the individuals were linked to Pakistan-based militant groups Jaish-e-Mohammad and Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind. Investigators revealed the Red Fort device did not have a timer or trigger, suggesting it detonated accidentally or prematurely. The panic and attempts to evade police among the remaining cell members likely led to a rushed and ultimately failed execution of the attack, which may not have been the group’s original target.
On 11 November, a suicide bombing targeted a judicial complex in Islamabad, Pakistan. At least 12 people were killed and dozens more injured as the suspect attempted to enter a courthouse but targeted a police vehicle after failure to enter the building. Pakistan’s government has publicly blamed the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP). The group denied responsibility. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif directly blamed India for the Islamabad suicide bombing, stating that "Indian-sponsored terrorist proxies" originating from Afghanistan were responsible for the attack, which he characterized as part of India's "state-sponsored terrorism aimed at destabilizing Pakistan".
While the timing is suspicious, Pakistan has a long history of attacks from militant groups along the Afghan border. Pakistan had just recently engaged in conflict with both the TTP and Afghan Taliban along the border where from 09-19 October, the two sides exchanged airstrikes, drone attacks, and ground clashes.
Global Guardian assesses that there is strong chance for these twin attacks to escalate tensions between India and Pakistan, possibly leading to another round of hostilities as witnessed in May of this year. Our triggers for conflict are below. Should one or more of these come to fruition, we recommend postponing travel to both India and Pakistan in the near-term.
Triggers
- India formally blaming Pakistan directly for the attack (India's stated policy is to reciprocate terror attacks with military action)
- Border closures
- Expelling of nationals
- Clashes in the contested border regions
- Drone incursions
Analysis
Despite the deaths from the Red Fort explosion, India’s interagency counter-terror operations against this particular terror cell have been highly successful. The success allows Indian decision makers to be less reactive. In May 2025, Prime Minister Modi declared that any future “terror” attack would be viewed as an “act of war.” Despite the alleged evidence linking the terror cell to Pakistan-based JeM, India has refrained from blaming Pakistan for the incident, unlike previous iterations. Should India formally attribute the attack to Pakistan, then further escalation is expected.
Recommendations
- Prepare for contingencies to include evacuation in the event of conflict.
- Listen to government updates and account for potential disruptions to travel due to evolving measures and announcements.
- Establish contingencies to promote business continuity, including stocking essential goods and ensuring a power supply due to the potential disruptions to such services in the event of an armed escalation or sustained airspace closures.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with local teams in the area to provide:
- Evacuation planning and execution
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Risk assessments
Click below to contact Global Guardian's 24/7 Operations Center or call us directly at +1 (703) 566-9463.
