In Global Guardian's "Your Questions Answered" series, our experts address pressing questions on current events, providing insight and analysis on the issues that impact your personal safety, business operations, and travel security.
Read below for insights from our analysts and subject matter experts, and get in touch with our team for further support and guidance.
This week’s question
May 7, 2025
Given Israel’s decision to escalate military operations in Gaza, what is your assessment of the current situation on the ground and the potential strategic and humanitarian implications?
Global Guardian’s response
Provided by: Zev Faintuch, Head of Research and Intelligence
Broadly speaking—and consistent with what we’ve been observing for several months—we are now at an inflection point where, quite frankly, “things are hitting the fan.” In terms of the military situation on the ground, Israel recently announced the mobilization of its reservists. Since March 15, when the ceasefire broke, ground operations had been relatively limited. However, this new development signals a major shift.
Under the leadership of a new Chief of Staff, Israel appears to be transitioning away from brief ground incursions—where forces would insert and then quickly exfiltrate—and moving toward a more sustained counterterrorism approach. This strategy, familiar from other conflict zones, centers around “take ground, hold, and build.”
The timing of these announcements is deliberate. The call-up of reservists, combined with public messaging, is widely seen as a final effort to achieve a limited ceasefire or hostage-for-prisoner exchange before President Trump’s scheduled trip to the Middle East next week. While the likelihood of such a deal materializing remains low, the implication is clear: “as soon as Trump is out of the region, then this operation is going to commence.”
Looking ahead, predicting the post-trip scenario becomes increasingly difficult. There is currently no official plan for who will manage reconstruction, governance, or the delivery of basic services in the aftermath. It’s possible that there will be major announcements to coincide with Trump’s visit. Unverified reports indicate that the IDF plans to transition away from wholesale distribution and warehousing of aid and to instead have international organizations and private security contractors hand out boxes of food to individual Gazan families. This situation is unlikely to be resolved quickly.
In summary, Israel is preparing for a long-term ground operation. The absence of a post-conflict roadmap raises concerns, though it’s possible that a landmark proposal will be floated during President Trump’s regional visit. And from a humanitarian perspective, the outlook is bleak with no good options on the table.
Key Takeaways
- Israel’s move toward a “take, hold, and build” strategy suggests a long-term intent to reshape Gaza’s security landscape—not just retaliate, but establish control.
- The lack of a post-conflict governance or aid strategy points to growing risks of instability and prolonged humanitarian suffering, regardless of military outcomes.
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