Will Putin Unleash Russia's Colossal Air Force on Ukraine?

"We've had this war of attrition and now as we go into this next phase, it's a bit of cat and mouse of, has NATO brought in their defense or not? Will the Russians introduce their most advanced air platforms and how successful could that limit the counterattack?"

Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner recently sat down with Newsweek’s Brendan Cole to discuss the possibility that Russia will deploy its air force in response to a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Episode 634: Dale Buckner, Army Colonel, Green Beret & CEO of Global Guardian

“All of those lessons learned about planning, communication, management of people, and operational excellence in the military—or any government agency for that matter—is something that I don’t think is replicable in corporate America.”
 
24-year US Army veteran and Global Guardian Co-Founder and CEO Dale Buckner sat down with SOFREP Radio to discuss how his background in special forces helped him transition into entrepreneurship and corporate America, offering guidance to government and military employees looking to forge a similar path.

In an Unstable World, Poor Crisis Planning Can End a Company; Warns Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner

On the latest episode of Coffee with Closers, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner sat down with Steve Burke from Pinkston to offer invaluable insight regarding building business resiliency amid increased global disruptions. This is a must listen for CEOs and business leaders interested in taking a proactive approach to crisis planning—and for anyone looking to understand today’s global threat landscape.

CEO Dale Buckner sat down with Julia Chatterley on CNN International to discuss a detailed account of the on-the-ground realities amid fighting in Sudan—and how this conflict will potentially play out in the coming days. Dale shared how Global Guardian is supporting clients with evacuation efforts and offered guidance to safeguard civilians in the area.

FRANCE | PAKISTAN

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travels. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates, including this monthly report.

Protests TO CONTINUE, Causing Widespread Disruption

The French government's recent decision to push through a pension reform bill has resulted in widespread protests and strikes, impacting security, transportation, and businesses across the nation. Paris has seen the most impact from riots and strikes, resulting in property damage, piles of garbage along streets, and airport operations disruptions. Hundreds of thousands of people have participated across the country.

Background

On 16 March, President Emmanuel Macron's government invoked Article 49.3, a special constitutional power, to push through a pension reform bill that raises the retirement age from 62 to 64. The government claims the reform is necessary due to a projected annual deficit of EUR 10 billion between 2022 and 2032. The National Assembly subsequently rejected two no-confidence motions, allowing the pension reform bill to become law. This has triggered nationwide strikes and protests, which are expected to continue and possibly intensify.

Protests and Impact

Trade unions, including the CGT, FO, CFE-CGC, UGICT, and Unsa have launched strikes that have heavily affected ground, rail, and air transportation, including in major cities like Paris, Lyon, and Marseille. Flights have been disrupted at multiple airports, while services on the RATP network in the greater Paris area and the SNCF network nationwide have been severely impacted. Unionized port and dock workers have also joined the strikes, disrupting port traffic. Additionally, around 20 percent of petrol stations have reported fuel shortages due to refinery workers' strikes.

Frequent protest sites in Paris include Place Vauban, Place de la Concorde, Place de la République, Place de la Nation, Place de la Bastille, Place d'Italie, Boulevard Beaumarchais, Avenue de la République, and the National Assembly.

While many protests have been peaceful, others have escalated to violence, with instances of rioting, property damage, and clashes between demonstrators and security forces. Hundreds of people, including police officers, have been injured amid the unrest.

Key Takeaways

• Nationwide protests and strikes are causing significant disruptions to transportation services, including flights, trains, and urban public transport.
• Major urban hubs, such as Paris, Lyon, and Marseille, are experiencing increased risk due to clashes between protesters and security forces.
• Travelers to and within France should anticipate disruptions and potential delays, confirm updated itineraries prior to departure, and avoid all demonstrations due to the risk of violence. The majority of protests begin in afternoon hours and violence typically doesn’t break out until evening hours.
• Residents and businesses in affected areas should stay informed of situational updates through local media and be prepared for continued disruptions.

Pakistan’s Three-Headed Crisis Continues Despite Improvements in Economic Outlook

Pakistan’s three-headed crisis continues, decreasing the country’s stability. Politically, opposition leader Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party continue to challenge Pakistan’s political system despite the legal campaign to disqualify Khan—the former prime minister and current most popular political figure—from running in this year’s elections. The security situation continues to deteriorate as the government recently declared an “all-out comprehensive operation” to stamp out terrorism akin to its 2014 push to oust militants from the northwest region bordering Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, Pakistan is closer to staving off default as Saudi Arabia has now pledged financing support, bringing it closer to receiving the next $1 billion tranche of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) bailout package. However, as part of the IMF’s deal, Pakistan has hiked fuel prices and taxes, increasing inflation to all-time highs. Further protests and terror activity can be expected in the near term.

• Global Guardian continues to warn against all travel to Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa provinces, as well as the areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit-Baltistan near the Line of Control (LoC).
• Monitoring the political situation and making contingency plans is essential for all travel to Pakistan, especially for travel to Punjab Province
• Having secure transportation with protection agents attuned to the local political situation is essential for all business travel to Pakistan.

Context

In March 2022, opposition parties, including the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), submitted a no-confidence motion over Khan’s alleged economic mismanagement, disregard for procedural norms, and most importantly, his major foreign policy rift with the military. Since his removal from power last year, Khan has been dealt dozens of charges—that are ostensibly politically motivated—including some for which he faces arrest. These include corruption, terrorism, contempt of courts, rioting, and blasphemy. The terrorism charges over publicly naming and shaming a particular judge bears the potential to disqualify Khan from running for or holding public office. Khan is on interim bail for three cases, which is set to expire on 13 April.

Recent Events

• 07 March – The Islamabad High Court issued an arrest warrant on corruption charges against the former prime minister, but he avoided arrest and instead filed a petition in the same court to cancel the warrant.
• 13 March – Khan skips Islamabad court appearance, citing threats on his life.
• 14 March – PTI activists and police continued to clash while roads leading to PTI Chairman Imran Khan’s house in Lahore’s Zaman Park were also blocked overnight on 14-15 March, after police tried to serve an arrest warrant to Khan over a graft case. Power cuts were reported in Zaman Park. Similar PTI protests and clashes were reported in other cities nationwide including in Karachi, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, and Peshawar.
• 04 April – The Pakistan Supreme Court ordered Punjab province to hold provincial assembly elections on May 14. This came after the Court deemed the election commission's decision to delay the elections due to security risks and financial constraints as unconstitutional.
• 05 April – PTI activists rallied nationwide, including at Liberty Chowk in Lahore, Lyari in Karachi, Multan, Dadu, Faisalabad, Rawalpindi, Vehari, Bahawalpur, DG Khan, Sargodha, Gujranwala, Okara, and Hyderabad to mark the Supreme Court verdict ordering officials to hold elections on 14 May in Punjab province. No clashes or arrests were immediately reported.
• 07 April – The leader and founder of the Baloch National Army (BNA) militant group, Shambay, was arrested in a security raid. The arrest of Shambay, a significant setback for the BNA and other Baloch militant groups, may trigger blowback in southwestern Pakistan, where Baloch separatists have been fighting for an independent state for years. The threat is expected to remain confined to the restive Balochistan Province.
• 07 April – Pakistan's National Security Committee announced it would launch a comprehensive counter terror operation with further details to be announced.

Ukraine likely to face bloody Crimea fight, satellite images show

“Crimea is one of the most defensible pieces of strategic real estate on the planet. It has all the things you want – defence in depth, extremely limited and narrow access points, air cover and the Black Sea Fleet to pick off invaders … Should we see an invasion, the conflict is bound to take a turn for the worse.”

Global Guardian leaders, including Senior Intelligence Analyst Zev Faintuch and CEO Dale Buckner, comment in Al Jazeera on newly published satellite photos showing Russia's preparation to defend Crimea against a potential Ukrainian attack—and the implications it has on the Russia-Ukraine War. 

US businesses shy about attendance at China’s Davos

In a Financial Times article, CEO Dale Buckner comments on how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has prompted Global Guardian clients to carefully consider and plan for the risks that may come from a decoupling between China and the United States, ahead of the China Development Forum in Bejing.

Xi departs Putin meeting, after signalling strength in Russia-China alliance

"China also wants to keep Putin in power, as its current lopsided relationship is very beneficial, and weaken Russia's military to reduce the threat it poses to China."

Following President Xi's meeting with President Putin in Moscow, Global Guardian Senior Intelligence Analyst Zev Faintuch was featured in ABC News discussing the current relationship between China and Russia in light of the West's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine War. 

Israel | MIDDLE EAST

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travels. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates, including this monthly report.

ISrael Faced with instability on Two fronts

Israel is currently experiencing both a steady uptick in terrorism and widespread protests against proposed judicial reforms that have impacted businesses, security, and transportation. Between the brazen terror attacks on Israeli civilians on both sides of the Green Line and the high-risk, daytime Israeli security operations in the West Bank, the overall political environment is conducive to another Gaza flair up or even, a third Intifada, as recently warned by CIA Director Bill Burns.

Tensions have been high for over a year—which included a brief war—but since the IDF raid in Jenin on 26 January and the terror attack the next day on a synagogue in East Jerusalem, the pace of violence has increased. With the Palestinian Authority unable to maintain order in its territory, more terrorist attacks and blunt counter-terror operations are likely.

Judicial Reform

Meanwhile, the anti-government/anti-Netanyahu protests in Israel’s major cities continue. On 11 March, approximately 250,000 demonstrators gathered in central Tel Aviv, blocking access to Ayalon Highway and disrupting transit on roads near Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv. This was the largest single demonstration since protests began on 04 February.

Impact

• Demonstrations against judicial reform began on 04 February, with protests across Israel, including in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jerusalem, Ra’anana, and Kfar Saba.
• Since then, protests have spread to nearly every city in Israel, with primary impacts felt in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Habima Square, Ayalon Highway, and government offices are focus points of the protests.
• Police have deployed water cannons, stun grenades, and tear gas against protesters.
• On 15 March, protesters attempted to block roads in and out of Ben Gurion International Airport in an effort to disrupt PM Netanyahu’s flight to Germany.
• The unrest highlights the risk of political instability, the acute ongoing transportation disruptions, and the need for secure transportation when traveling overland in Israel.

The root of the unrest is proposed reforms spearheaded by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government that would weaken the Supreme Court by limiting the Supreme Court's power to exercise judicial review, granting the government control over judicial appointments, and limiting the authority of its legal advisors. The reform would also grant the Knesset the power to override Supreme Court rulings that deem legislation passed by the Knesset as unconstitutional, by reintroducing the legislation and approving it with a majority of Knesset Members—effectively bypassing the Supreme Court and tilting the balance of power. On 13 March, the first reading of the proposed reform was approved by the Knesset. Two more readings must be approved before the bill becomes law.

Reaction

• The widespread public outcry against the reforms has thrown a spotlight on PM Netanyahu, who is barred from debating the proposal due to his ongoing trial involving Israel’s judiciary.
• The reforms are seen as shifting the balance of power away from the judiciary and towards the legislative and executive branches. Netanyahu denies he will use the reforms to appoint judges in order to get his trial frozen or thrown out.
• Israeli President Isaac Herzog, largely a ceremonial figure, denounced the reforms and called for them to be withdrawn.
• At least 37 elite Israeli Air Force pilots refused training in protest against the reforms.

Outlook

Protests are likely to continue in the near term even if the judicial reforms are withdrawn and the deteriorating security situation in the West Bank is unsustainable. It is unclear if this uptick in violence will fizzle out or culminate in the third Intifada. But what is clear is that with the weak, ageing, and successor-less Palestinian President Abbas and Iran’s immediate interest in fanning flames to divert Israel’s attention, the stage is set for a major deterioration in the security landscape of Israel for the coming months.  

Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Iran Increases Regional Stability

Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to restore diplomatic ties after years of contentious relations where the leading Shiite and Sunni powers, respectively, supported opposing sides in sectarian conflicts throughout the region. The Chinese-mediated deal signals a moderately stabilizing shift in regional political dynamics and more importantly, it portends a possible end to the devastating conflict in Yemen.

Timeline

• 2011 – Saudi Arabia sends troops to quell ethnic Shiite protests against the Sunni royal family in Bahrain. Saudi Arabia blames Iran for instigating the unrest.
• 2015 – Saudi Arabia begins its involvement in the Yemeni war where the Iran-backed Houthi rebels hold large parts of the country.
• 2016 – Saudi Arabia executes Shiite cleric Nimr al Nimr resulting in the storming of the Saudi Embassy in Tehran.
• 2016 – Saudi Arabia and Iran sever diplomatic ties.
• 2019 – Iran is implicated in missile and drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure.
• 2021 – Iran and Saudi Arabia hold talks in Baghdad.
• 2023 – Iran and Saudi Arabia normalize relations and agree to reopen reciprocal diplomatic missions by May.

Response to Detente

Saudi Arabia is enthusiastic about the possibility of ending their involvement in the Yemeni quagmire, and Iran is eager to dampen American efforts at isolating Tehran. The normalization has been welcomed by several countries in the region, including past mediators Iraq and Oman, who applauded the move as an important step in securing regional stability.

Further afield, the agreement is being touted as a diplomatic coup for China, whose president Xi Jinping aspires to increase the perception of his country as a peacemaker and alternative to American leadership in a region where Washington casts a long shadow. China has played off Saudi frustration with American criticism of Riyadh's human rights abuses, and the relatively cold relationship between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and President Joe Biden compared with that of former President Trump.

In the United States, reactions to the development have been mixed. John Kirby, a White House national security spokesperson, touted any move towards de-escalation as “in America’s interest.” But others see the successful mediation by Beijing as a threat to American influence, especially with longtime ally Saudi Arabia.

U.S. Embassy issues Mexico travel warnings to spring breakers

“We highly encourage people to go to Mexico and enjoy it. You just need to do a little bit of homework.”

In an article in The Washington Post by Hannah Sampson, Global Guardian CEO and President Dale Buckner urges travelers to make preparations should they encounter a crisis situation before going to Mexico—and anywhere in the world—and plan activities with safety in mind to avoid unnecessary risks.