Taiwan | New CAledonia

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

China’s Reaction to President Lai Ching-te’s Inauguration Address Presages Cross-strait Tumult

On 23 May, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) commenced the two-day Joint Sword 2024A exercise simulating a blockade of Taiwan. This marks the third round of large-scale military drills around Taiwan over the last two years, with the previous iteration in response to then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's April 2023 visit to the U.S. Regional tensions are rising in the aftermath of Lai’s Inauguration and the Shangri-La Dialogue.

Joint Sword 2024A took place in five maritime areas outside of Taiwan’s territorial waters (more than 12 nautical miles from its coast), mainly near the ports of Kaohsiung and Keelung, around Taiwan's outlying island groups of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin, as well as in the Taiwan Strait and east of Taiwan. According to the PLA's Eastern Theater Command (ETC), the drills are "punishment for the Taiwan independence separatist forces" and are meant to serve as "a serious warning to external forces for interference and provocation." The exercise comes on the heels of new Taiwanese President (William) Lai Ching-te’s 20 May inauguration speech in which he referred to China by name, rather than "the mainland," noted that neither China nor Taiwan were subordinate to one another, and called on China "to cease their (sic) political and military intimidation against Taiwan."

China's Joint Sword 2024A Military Drills

• Global Guardian assesses that the window for China to blockade or invade Taiwan is open.
• It is likely that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan will begin as a military exercise not unlike Joint Sword 2024A.
• We recommend that all firms with operations or interests in East and South East Asia begin to prepare for the possibility of a major disruption in the near to medium terms.

Recent Events

• 03 June – Taiwan announces a series of live-fire drills simulating the defense from a Chinese amphibious assault.

• 02 June – Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun accuses Taiwan of “pursuing separation,” in address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

• 24 May – Between 20,000-80,000 protesters gathered outside Taiwan's Legislative Yuan in Taipei to protest the opposition parties' efforts to enact legislative reforms that would increase the legislature's power over the executive branch.

• 23 May – China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) warned the United States (U.S.) not to schedule any congressional visits to Taiwan.

• 23 May– PLA begins Joint Sword 2024A drills around Taiwan.

• 23 May – Taiwanese President (William) Lai Ching-te is inaugurated.

Analysis

Lai’s inauguration leaves Beijing with few carrots left to offer Taiwan and an ever-growing stick as the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and China’s informal navies grow in strength and practice blockading Taiwan. The recent Chinese drills focused on joint sea-air combat but were shorter than previous iterations. In addition, no Chinese ships entered Taiwan’s territorial waters, and there were no airspace closures.

The language used in Lai’s inaugural address was not received well in Beijing but fit the narrative it has built around President Lai being a secessionist. At Asia’s premiere defense gathering, China’s defense minister Jun used unprecedented language, implicitly threatening aggression against Taiwan and the Philippines.

Looking Forward

By naming the exercise Joint Sword 2024A, China is signaling that it may conduct another similar exercise this year, an event made more likely through another high-level American visit to Taipei or if Lai visits the U.S. The current hung parliament will allow Beijing to carry out both overt and covert destabilization operations to undermine Taiwan’s democratic system and harm Lai’s and the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) image.

Since February, China has sought to normalize gray zone military activity around and within Kinmen’s waters, with the intent of inculcating its permanent coast guard presence in Taiwan’s frontline islands. These islands will likely become a future flashpoint following a real or manufactured incident.

Violent Unrest in New Caledonia Highlights Multi-Domain Great Power Frictions

On 13 May, violent protests in Noumea — the capital of the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia — ignited a large-scale wave of civil unrest in New Caledonia. So far, the riots have led to seven deaths, hundreds of injuries, disruptions to travel and commerce, roughly a billion Euros in damage, and soaring nickel prices. While the violence has abated since its peak in late May, unrest and sporadic clashes between local factions and security forces are likely to continue for weeks to come. New Caledonia’s unrest illustrates the growing convergence of social, political, and economic threats as “domestic” issues are increasingly internationalized.

The indigenous ethnic Kanak people are protesting against an expansion of local voter rolls to include large swaths of ethnic French transplants — which would effectively erase Kanak aspirations for independence. When legislators in Paris passed the vote on 15 May, violence escalated. Pro-independence demonstrators began erecting barricades, setting fire to businesses, and engaging in violent clashes with police and informal loyalist militias. French President Emmanuel Macron’s administration implemented a state of emergency on 16 May that included a curfew and the banning of TikTok. Some 3,500 French security personnel, including gendarmes (militarized police), marines, and special police units such as RAID and GIGN, were deployed to logistical hubs, including the ports and airport. French security forces have since secured the island’s ports and international airport.

• Global Guardian advises against any unnecessary travel to New Caledonia.
• Avoid all protests and concentrations of security forces or protesters.

Timeline

• 05 June – Flights resume from Tontouta International Airport (NOU).
• 28 &29 May – The TikTok ban and state of emergency are lifted.
• 26 May – Pro-independence leadership states full independence from France as their official goal for future negotiations and instructs protesters to change to a lower-intensity posture but to maintain barricades and a presence in the street indefinitely as talks progress.
• 22 May – President Macron visits the territory.
• 18 May – 600 gendarmes, including 100 GIGN operatives, attempt to clear the road from the international airport to the capital Noumea.
• 16 May – Paris enacts a state of emergency. TikTok is banned in the territory. French military personnel are deployed to take control of seaports and airports.
• 15 May – French legislatures pass a bill extending the franchise to a large swatch of ethnic French residents previously denied the right to vote in local elections.
• 13 May – Small-scale violence breaks out at protests in Noumea as Kanak independence groups anticipate a vote in Paris that could close the path to eventual independence.

Context

France colonized New Caledonia in the mid-19^th century. Since its colonization, New Caledonia’s native Kanak population has experienced discrimination and economic exploitation, especially regarding the profit distribution of the territory’s nickel deposits. In the 1980s, ethnic and economic tensions erupted into a civil war that saw assassinations and kidnappings, as well as dozens of fatalities and thousands of injuries.

This spate of violence ended with France’s recognition of the Kanaks as New Caledonia’s native population and a commitment to New Caledonian autonomy or eventual independence under the “Noumea Accords” framework. The Accords called for three rounds of referenda based on frozen voter rolls –—only citizens who were residents of New Caledonia in 1998 could vote — which were executed in 2018, 2020, and 2021. The first two referenda resulted in minor wins for the “stay” camp. But pro-Independence organizations boycotted the 2021 referendum after their request for postponement due to Covid was denied, leading to a 96.7% vote in favor of remaining.

Pro-Independence factions in New Caledonia rejected the outcome of the referenda as illegitimate and characterized Paris’s move to unfreeze the voter rolls as “recolonization.” However, New Caledonia’s nickel deposits (30% of global reserves), its 1.36 million square kilometer exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and its centrality to France’s Pacific presence make it difficult for Paris to relinquish the territory.

Analysis

France possesses 12 overseas territories — not including Corsica — that together account for roughly 2.6 million people. Mayotte, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Corsica have all experienced significant unrest that necessitated security intervention in the past five years. In the context of France’s increasingly global political and economic aspirations, the friction between France’s peripheral territories and Paris is only set to intensify.

France’s impulse to cement control of the territory is made more salient by the support for independence offered by Paris’s adversaries. Azerbaijan — spurned by French arms transfers and political backing for Armenia — actively coordinates with and supports at least 14 political movements that advocate for the independence of French territories. These include New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Corsica, Guadeloupe, and Martinique. Russia and China have also made statements in support of the Kanak protesters. The latter is particularly concerning to Paris as Beijing has an extensive economic and political presence in the South Pacific, extending to relationships with pro-independence politicians in New Caledonia.

Tensions in overseas territories threaten France’s strategic autonomy — its overarching objective. When France was evicted from Niger, it lost access to its main source of Uranium which is critical both to France’s green energy sector — nuclear power supplies roughly 70% of Frances's energy needs — and to its standalone nuclear umbrella. Nickel is essential for manufacturing high-end batteries used in electric vehicles and other green technology. Should France lose New Caledonia to a pro-Chinese regime, it would lose control over 30% of the world’s nickel reserves — a necessary asset in the competition against Chinese electric vehicles.

Looking Forward

The violence may escalate if sufficient steps toward Kanak autonomy are not taken. The Kanak independence organizations, particularly the FLNKS, see this as an existential fight and are willing to escalate violence substantially. French retaliation against Azerbaijan could take the form of increased support for Armenia and attacks on Azerbaijan’s political position through international organizations. New Caledonian protesters may seek to draw attention to their cause through protest action at the upcoming Paris Olympics.

More broadly, information campaigns targeting separatists and minorities are likely to take on an increasingly effective role in the ongoing hybrid war between the U.S.-led international order and its opponents. Therefore, unrest is likely to increase in areas with substantial mineral deposits necessary for green energy technology. Large reserves of cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, manganese, and rare earths in underdeveloped areas will likely see increased great power competition over access.

French Police Arrest Man for Hotel Room Explosion as Olympic Security Efforts Ramp-Up

“France is a target for Islamist attacks due to its leadership role in campaigns against the Islamic State and al-Qaeda in Africa and its large, relatively marginalized Muslim community.”

Security Management's recent post about rising terrorism concerns in Paris, France ahead of the 2024 Summer Olympics highlighted Global Guardian's extensive report outlining threats to the Games, and how to stay safe if you're headed to the country this summer.  

Russia is trying to disrupt 2024 Paris Olympics, Microsoft says

"Those attacks have probably already begun, he said, and are likely to multiply, with French authorities going 'on the offensive' as the games approach to crack down on groups planning attacks."

Global Guardian CEO and President Dale Buckner was featured in The Washington Post's piece on how Russia is looking to disrupt the 2024 Paris Olympics via disinformation, propaganda, and artificial intelligence. 

Russian Bots Use Fake Tom Cruise for Olympic Disinformation

“We think this is the number one security threat to the Games. With AI now you’re going to have a level of disinformation we haven’t seen before.”

As pro-Russia propaganda spreads disinformation about the Paris Olympics, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner warns travelers that artificial intelligence and hacking could lead to disruptions and unrest at the Games in Bloomberg.

Ukraine Is Closer to Crossing Putin's Biggest Red Line Yet

"Seeing that Putin considers Crimea to be formal Russian territory, Putin's red line has already been crossed."

In Newsweek, Global Guardian Senior Intelligence Analyst Zev Faintuch provided his perspective alongside other experts on how the shifting state of the Ukraine-Russia war may provoke further aggression by the Kremlin. 

Globalization Across the Rocky Seas of Supply Chain

"Global trade has long taken for granted the stability and security of shipping routes. That is simply not a fair assumption today. Accepting this reality is the first step toward preparing your business to withstand the pressures of unstable supply chains. Building redundancy into business models and nearshoring operations is integral to survival in this new multi-polar environment. The world is changing, and the seas are no exception."

In Supply & Demand Chain Executive, Senior Intelligence Analyst Zev Faintuch discusses significant geopolitical and environmental threats impacting the world’s shipping chokepoints, as shared in Global Guardian's 2024 Worldwide Threat Assessment. Zev highlights potential scenarios to help business leaders understand the implications of these threats on supply chains — and the global economy — in order to build business resiliency amid this new multi-polar environment.

Mexico Heads to Polls amid Surging Cartel Violence

"In Global Guardian’s recently published Global Risk Assessment, Mexico was classified as a high-risk country on par with Haiti, which is essentially a failed state as gangs are currently in control of most of the country."

In Geopolitical Monitor's coverage of Mexico's upcoming election, Global Guardian's 2024 Risk Map — which highlights country-specific security risk ratings — was a featured asset that helps demonstrate the precarious position Mexico finds itself in as cartel violence rises. 

After months of tension over Rafah, White House appears to recalibrate strategy on Israel

"Our administration is trying to shape behavior, but this comes down to how Hamas and Israel see the world, how determined they both are, and who is going to push through and succeed."

Global Guardian VP of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich provided analysis to ABC News on the current status of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and how what's happening on the ground shapes conversations around the negotiation table. 

BALANCE OF POWER: Israel Plans Possible Rafah Operation

"This is where precision will matter…. You’re trying to thread the needle where you’re trying to...attrit the Hamas fighters that are left. At the same time, the real risk of dropping large munitions is you can start killing Israeli hostages. This is going to be very difficult."

Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner discussed the latest developments in the Middle East with Bloomberg’s Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz on Balance of Power, including insight into the complexities of the situation in Rafah and Israel’s fight with Hezbollah in the north.

NATO Countries | United States

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Russia Escalates Sabotage Campaign in the West

A Russian espionage and sabotage campaign in Europe and North America has intensified over the past several months. As Ukraine’s allies augment the quality and quantity of their support for Kyiv, Moscow appears poised to increase the use of “active measures” against Western targets, including operations ranging from cyberattacks and disinformation to sabotage and targeted violence. Private companies — particularly those linked to the Ukrainian war effort — are at growing risk from Russian sabotage and disruptive activities.

In the past month, several conspicuous fires have broken out at factories in the West producing military supplies for Ukraine. On 03 May, a major chemical fire was reported at a Berlin factory owned by German arms company Diehl Group, which manufactures Ukraine-bound air-to-air missiles, leading to a brief evacuation of the nearby area. On 17 April, a BAE Systems factory in southern Wales that produces 155mm artillery shells (a critical commodity on the front in Ukraine) suffered a major explosion. Similarly, on 15 April, an army ammunition plant that manufactures the same shells in Scranton, Pennsylvania, caught fire. Two men in Britain were also detained last month for setting fire to a warehouse containing aid destined for Ukraine. While evidence linking Russian agents to these incidents has thus far emerged in only one case, past instances of such sabotage have been attributed to Russian military intelligence.

Russia is also disrupting logistics in Ukraine-allied countries where it can. On 30 April, Finnair announced a month-long suspension of flights to the Estonian city of Tartu due to Russian GPS jamming in the Baltic. In Sweden, security services are investigating a spate of freight derailments as possible acts of Russian sabotage. In Czechia, rail signaling systems have come under what is believed to be Russian attacks. Additionally, on 17 April, two German-Russian dual nationals were arrested for scouting targets — including U.S. military bases — for Russian sabotage.

• Global Guardian recommends that companies involved in military supply chains conduct robust security audits and increase physical and cyber security measures.
• We recommend a heightened security posture for firms with assets or personnel in Eastern Europe, particularly the Baltics and Poland.

Previous Russian-Attributed Sabotage Incidents

• 25 June 2023: A large fire is reported at the EMKO arms depot in Karnobat, Bulgaria.
• 27 April 2015: EMKO’s owner, Emilian Gebrev, and his son, are poisoned in an assassination attempt by GRU team 29155.
• 03 December 2015: A series of explosions linked to GRU unit 29155 take place at Warehouse No. 20 near Vrbetice, Czechia.
• 16 October 2014: Explosion at Warehouse No. 16 linked to GRU unit 29155 near Vlachovice, Czechia.

Context

These incidents highlight a clear pattern: Russia’s clandestine efforts are taking on a distinctly material objective, crossing the line that divides routine intelligence gathering from what Russian intelligence calls “active measures.” Russia’s all-of-society approach to its own prosecution of the war in Ukraine is mirrored in attacks on “all of Western society,” including, primarily, those companies that provide aid in any form to Ukraine. Incidents of this kind will likely increase in frequency as Russia exploits the gap between the importance of and security posture of private enterprises supporting the war effort in the West.

Analysis

Russia’s overarching strategic objective for the medium term is to convince the Ukrainian people and Western policymakers that a Russian victory is inevitable. While the path to a Ukrainian victory is hazy, if Russia is able to demoralize Ukraine and hamstring Western aid, Moscow has a clear route to securing a favorable bargaining position in future peace talks.

Russia’s aggressive actions in the West are also, in part, a response to asymmetric Ukrainian successes within Russia itself. Ukrainian operatives successfully carried out dozens of acts of sabotage inside Russia, including the destruction of a key Siberian rail tunnel last winter, the bombing of a munitions factory near Moscow, and an explosion at an intercontinental ballistic missile plant.

While Russia is doing everything it can to hit infrastructure in Ukraine with its drone and missile salvos, most of Ukraine’s munition production is done in Western countries where a drone or missile attack would be too provocative — potentially leading to a direct confrontation with NATO. Unable to attack Western manufacturing overtly and unwilling to let support to Ukraine flow unimpeded, Russia has chosen the middle path of hybrid war.

Looking Forward

We expect increased attacks on critical infrastructure and defense manufacturing in Ukraine’s principal allies, including the Baltic states, Poland, France, the UK, Germany, and the United States. Water management systems and hospitals — which often lack protections against sophisticated cyber actors — are particularly at risk. The likelihood of a Russian cyberattack on the upcoming Olympic Games is also very high. A Russian attack — similar to the one carried out during the 2018 Olympics — is made more likely by Macron’s recent support for putting European troops in Ukraine.

Anti-Israel Campaign Intensifies, Presaging More Unrest

Anti-Israel protests have spread from campuses in the United States (U.S.) to Canada, Europe, Australia, and Mexico in the largest student-led protest movement since the Vietnam War. In many instances, protests have been met by heavy-handed policing or counter protesters. Despite the coming end of the academic year, the protests are unlikely to dissipate in the near term. Unrest related to the war in the Middle East will likely continue to disrupt business and travel into the near term.

On 17 April, Columbia University’s president, Minouche Shafik, was called before a congressional hearing concerning antisemitism on U.S. campuses. Shafik, unlike previous university heads from Harvard, Yale, and MIT, took a hard line against antisemitic rhetoric at anti-Zionist student protests. In response, anti-Israeli protesters formed an encampment on Columbia’s grounds. On 18 April the encampment was forcefully cleared by NYPD at the university’s request, resulting in more than 100 arrests. Over the following weeks, protesters set up encampments modeled on Columbia’s at dozens of universities. As a result, commencements at Columbia and USC have been canceled. At least 2,800 protesters have been arrested or detained since Columbia’s encampment was cleared across roughly 50 campus protests.

• Global Guardian recommends avoiding university campuses and the surrounding areas if possible.
• We expect more commencement ceremonies to be canceled.
  
  

Context

The October 7 Hamas Pogrom in Israel and the subsequent Israeli invasion of Gaza set off a wave of global civil unrest. More than eighty countries have seen anti-Israel protests, including major demonstrations in the U.S., France, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, and Canada.

In the U.S., the protests quickly became polarized along generational lines. Young Americans are overwhelmingly critical of Israel’s campaign in Gaza, while older generations — which include both President Biden and most Congress members — have remained largely supportive of Israel’s right to self-defense.

Starting in October of 2023, students began protesting Israel’s response to the Hamas attack. Initially, university faculty were supportive of the protesters — even going so far as to condone a minority of demonstrators who had engaged in legitimately antisemitic and pro-Hamas rhetoric. This led to the resignation of multiple university presidents, including Harvard’s.

Timeline

• 15 April: As part of a global “economic blockade to free Palestine,” demonstrators block traffic on Interstate 880 in Oakland, the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco Bay Area, Interstate 190 leading into O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, the Brooklyn Bridge in New York, Interstate 5 in Eugene, Oregon, the State Route 518 off-ramp to Seattle Tacoma Airport, and Interstate 76 and I-95 in Philadelphia.
• 17 April: Columbia University President addresses Congress; campus encampment begins.
• 18 April: Columbia encampment is partially cleared by NYPD with over 100 people detained.
• 21-22 April: NYU, Yale, University of Michigan, MIT, Emerson, and Tufts students set up encampments. Dozens of protesters are arrested at NYU and Yale.
• 30 April: Columbia students occupy Hamilton Hall and UCLA’s protest is attacked by counterdemonstrators using pepper spray and fireworks for four hours before police intervene and clear the encampment.
• 02-03 May: Students in Paris occupy one of Science Po’s buildings; French police forcefully remove protesters at Science Po.
• 06 - 07 May: Columbia University cancels graduation ceremony. Police and protesters clash in and around the University of Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Analysis

The anti-Israel movement has modeled itself in large part on the anti-Vietnam War protest movement, which saw large-scale student participation, and a violent crackdown by security services, including, famously, the killing of four students at Kent State University in Ohio. The U.S.’s military support for Israel and the crack down on anti-Israeli demonstrations have deeply energized a youth population whose median position on Israel was already highly negative. Added to this are the youth’s overwhelmingly negative perception of the police, which is borne in part from the legacy of the 2020 BLM protest movement.

The encampment tactics were designed to force university action through disruption. But under the threat of congressional pressure, the action that university leaders were able to take — clearing encampments — did not alleviate student-led protests but rather inflamed them.

Looking Forward

While many schools are undergoing their final exams now, the anti-Israel protest movement is not likely to dissipate with the arrival of summer break. As foreshadowed at the Met Gala, White House Correspondents Dinner, and elsewhere, anti-Israeli protesters will attach themselves to any event that draws significant media attention or has any meaningful connection to Israel, Israeli economic interests, or the Biden administration.

This summer, both President Biden and former President Donald Trump are set to attend their respective party's nominating conventions, events that are expected to attract political energy and attention. Additionally, this period marks the fourth anniversary of the widespread protests that erupted across the country after George Floyd's death in Minneapolis. As such, we expect protests and disruptions to continue.