As geopolitical volatility accelerates and traditional assumptions erode, corporate security leaders must rethink how they prepare for disruption in 2026 and beyond.
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February 19, 2026 INSIDE THIS ARTICLE, YOU'LL FIND: |
As global instability continues to accelerate, corporate security leaders are navigating a series of rapid, high-impact developments that underscore how little margin for error now exists. In the weeks leading up to Global Guardian’s first webinar of the year, 2026 Global Affairs, heightened tensions in the Middle East, assertive geopolitical maneuvering in the Western Hemisphere, persistent conflict in Eastern Europe, and rising domestic polarization in the United States combined to create an operating environment defined less by predictability and more by constant volatility. Against this backdrop, the webinar brought together senior security and intelligence leaders to assess the most consequential geopolitical developments unfolding in real time, evaluate emerging risks for the year ahead, and translate those dynamics into practical considerations for business leaders.
Moderated by Spencer Tadken, EVP of Operations at Global Guardian, the discussion featured insights from Brian Collins, Chief Security Officer at BDO USA, PC; Dale Buckner, CEO and President of Global Guardian; and Michael Ballard, Director of Intelligence at Global Guardian. Together, the panel examined how shifting power dynamics, domestic polarization, and evolving conflict zones are reshaping the global operating environment—and what organizations must do to stay resilient.
The webinar opened with a clear message: 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most complex and volatile operating environments in recent memory. Michael Ballard framed the year as one defined by geopolitical whiplash—rapid shifts in policy, diplomacy giving way to hard power, and increasingly compressed decision windows for organizations noting that “volatility is really the theme and the key word that we’re focusing on.”
From the Middle East to Eastern Europe and Latin America, the panel emphasized that risks are no longer isolated. Supply chains, travel, and regional operations are being affected by interconnected geopolitical flashpoints, making long-term planning more difficult and increasing the likelihood of sudden disruption. As Brian Collins explained, “Each one of these regions, I equate to a pot of water on the stove. Each one is running at a different temperature, and at different times, one may be boiling over while another one remains at room temperature. And it’s never consistent. It changes on almost an hourly basis these days.”
The panel also highlighted growing domestic risk in the United States, driven by political polarization, institutional distrust, and the amplification of extreme narratives online. Ballard noted that echo chambers and algorithm-driven content are reinforcing divisions, making consensus harder to achieve and increasing the likelihood of civil unrest. The polarized discourse around the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by ICE agents and subsequent protests highlight this domestic risk.
Looking ahead, the panel warned that the summer of 2026 could bring heightened protest activity and localized unrest, particularly as federal enforcement actions and political tensions intersect. For corporate security leaders, this means reassessing assumptions about “low risk” domestic environments and applying the same rigor used for international operations closer to home. Corporate security teams should be utilizing secure transportation or executive protection for domestic travel, particularly to cities experiencing unrest or ongoing federal operations.
In Europe, while the Russia/Ukraine conflict remains largely stalled, the broader implications for regional security are significant. European nations are increasingly recognizing that U.S. security guarantees may no longer be assured, prompting renewed investments in defense and regional self-reliance. This shift, while necessary, comes with risk. Disinformation campaigns, hybrid warfare tactics, and infrastructure vulnerabilities, particularly in the Baltics and across NATO states, are likely to persist. For businesses operating in or through Europe, these developments reinforce the need for robust monitoring, contingency planning, and scenario-based preparedness.
Turning to the Middle East, the panel cautioned that while large-scale conflict may not be imminent, the region remains far from stable. Iran, Israel, the U.S., and a network of proxy actors exist within an environment of cascading risk across the region, with Yemen emerging as a key, and often overlooked, flashpoint. Recent diplomatic friction between Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) converged in southern Yemen amidst a push by UAE-backed separatists seeking an independent south Yemen. This was quickly countered by significant military activity by KSA-backed national government forces.
Rather than a single decisive event, the panel stressed that businesses should prepare for sustained instability, intermittent escalation, and second-order effects that may disrupt travel, energy markets, and regional partnerships.
Latin America was featured prominently in the discussion, particularly following the January developments in Venezuela. Ballard described a renewed U.S. focus on hemispheric influence, noting that “this is really about primacy over the hemisphere,” with implications for how governments across Latin America respond to pressure, trade negotiations, and security cooperation. The panel noted that assertive U.S. actions, whether real or perceived, are already influencing how regional governments respond to Washington. For organizations operating in the region, this raises concerns around sovereignty, arbitrary detention, and increased targeting of Western travelers and executives. Dale Buckner underscored that kidnapping, executive targeting, and coercive tactics are likely to increase, especially if tensions with criminal networks escalate.
At the same time, upcoming elections in Colombia may shape ongoing U.S.–Colombia relations. To better understand how elections in key markets—such as Colombia and Hungary—may affect stability, risk, and business operations, download Global Guardian’s 2026 Global Election Report for expert insight to help leaders anticipate and prepare for potential disruption.
Brian Collins provided a corporate security lens on the geopolitical discussion, describing today’s environment as “19th-century politics playing out in a 21st-century world.” This mismatch, he explained, is generating instability across political, economic, and social systems.
As Collins explained, “We’re seeing outside-of-the-norm behaviors manifesting at the state, institutional, and individual levels—and those dynamics are increasingly intersecting with corporate security.” At the state level, strained alliances and weakened security guarantees are creating opportunities for hybrid threats, including disinformation campaigns, infrastructure disruption, and cyber activity. At the institutional level, growing distrust in governments, regulators, and economic systems is contributing to market volatility, tighter controls on cross-border activity, and more conservative business decision-making. And at the individual level, heightened grievance, polarization, and rhetoric are driving concerning behavior—ranging from increased threats against executives to a greater willingness for individuals to take matters into their own hands.
Collins emphasized that security leaders must plan not just for acute crises, but for chronic disruption. He noted that the role of the CSO is expanding rapidly, requiring leaders to balance executive protection, employee safety, and business continuity in an environment where resources are often constrained. At BDO, this has meant tighter integration between crisis management and business continuity—reflecting what he described as a growing reality: “I’m also paying a greater attention to the relationship between security and business continuity and third party risks because while we’re seeing these acute actions and events that require an immediate response, we’re seeing chronic trends that also demand a response. And so that nexus between crisis management and business continuity is growing ever tighter and we’re needing to cover down on some of those gaps.”
A central theme of his remarks was the need to rethink how organizations prepare for disruption. As Collins explained, “We’re preparing for inevitable surprise and the way that we do that is we don’t necessarily focus in on nouns, but rather verbs. Think of plans that are designed to combat a specific type of incident, but instead we focus in on the planning and the planning process so that no matter the type of disruption, we as an organization have the tools and the experience and the confidence to face that in a consistent fashion.”
He also stressed the importance of strong external partnerships, explaining that collaboration with trusted third-party providers and intelligence partners has become essential to extending capability, accessing timely intelligence, and responding effectively in a constantly shifting risk environment.
One of the most resonant takeaways of the webinar was the idea of planning around verbs, not nouns. Information, the panel agreed, is increasingly commoditized. What differentiates resilient organizations is their ability to act decisively under pressure. Buckner reinforced this point, challenging organizations to look beyond alerts and dashboards and ask whether they have the real-world capability to move people out of harm’s way, provide medical support, or protect executives in high-risk environments. Situational awareness alone, he noted, does not solve problems.
In closing, Buckner delivered a stark message: Organizations should stop being surprised. From potential escalation in Ukraine to unrest in Latin America, major disruptive events are not hypothetical—they are likely.
He urged leaders to shift their mindset, asking, “Are you thinking like that? Are you thinking, here’s where we’re at today, but I know there’s a natural disaster coming. I know that there is another conflict coming.”
His challenge to corporate leaders was clear: Reassess systems, question assumptions, and ensure that security programs are built to respond, not just observe. As Buckner emphasized, leaders should be asking, “Do I have actual capacity today with the systems that I have to actually get people out of harm’s way, to actually affect change, not just be informed and be a witness to a crisis around the world, but actually be able to do something about it?”
In a world where seven to eleven major disruptive events may occur in a single year, resilience depends on preparation, partnerships, and the ability to execute.
The global operating environment in 2026 is defined by volatility, geopolitical realignment, and an increasing pace of disruption. From shifting power dynamics and regional flashpoints to domestic polarization and emerging threats, organizations face a risk landscape that is both complex and constantly evolving.
To hear directly from Global Guardian’s leadership and security experts—including regional intelligence assessments, corporate security perspectives, and actionable guidance for preparedness—watch the full webinar: 2026 Global Affairs.
Whether your organization is navigating heightened geopolitical risk, reassessing executive protection and travel programs, or strengthening crisis response capabilities, this session provides critical insight into what lies ahead and how to prepare with confidence.
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