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Iran is running out of water, and the situation is gaining traction internationally. Rolling brownouts and other domestic issues are compounding the crisis, which has no clear solution. This could be the first time in modern history that a capital city with more than 10 million people—Tehran—runs out of water, along with a number of other Iranian cities.
When a regime is both desperate and wounded, with its greatest threat coming from within, instability follows. Historically, Iran has acted as a rational, albeit disruptive, actor, making informed decisions despite its limited resources. But this is different. Years of horrific resource mismanagement have left the country with no easy way out. If the taps run dry, the Iranian government may become more unpredictable, potentially creating regional challenges. That could directly affect travelers and business interests across the Gulf in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other areas where reaction time to emerging threats would be minimal.
This is a truly unique moment in decades of watching Iran’s interactions with Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other regional players. It is, in many ways, a black swan event—something unprecedented. We’ve never seen a competitor or ally run out of water, and the consequences could be far-reaching in ways we can’t fully anticipate.
One possible outcome is mass migration. People will move to where the water is, including into eastern Turkey and other neighboring regions. Afghanistan faces a similar drought, making the regional picture even more complex. Like famine, this crisis is not just the result of natural conditions but also of policy failures. We may see the emergence of “water refugees,” and with that, new dynamics for governments, humanitarian organizations, and travelers to consider.
While we can’t yet predict the full impact, the warning signs are clear: if Iran’s water crisis reaches a tipping point, it could trigger events unlike anything the region has seen before.
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