Global & Digital Comprehensive Security Blog

The Terrorism Surge: Key Trends and Implications for Global Security

Written by Global Guardian Team | Nov 6, 2025 6:02:52 AM

Examine the impact of shifting terrorism threats on global security and corporate risk, and discover actionable strategies to strengthen your organization’s resilience and preparedness.

November 5, 2025

INSIDE THIS ARTICLE, YOU'LL FIND:

 

For more than two decades, the world’s attention to terrorism has waxed and waned. Global interest is often reactive, rising after major attacks and fading as other crises take center stage. In reality, this threat has never disappeared—but it has evolved, becoming decentralized, tech-enabled, and harder to detect.

During Global Guardian’s recent webinar, The Terrorism Surge: Key Trends and Implications for Global Security, experts from the intelligence, corporate, and national security communities came together to assess how terrorism is transforming and what it means for organizations operating in a global, volatile landscape. From the Sahel to Seattle, the threat now crosses borders, industries and platforms, amplified by emerging technologies, disinformation and lone-actor radicalization.

Moderated by James Wiggins, former Vice President of Client Risk Management at Global Guardian, the discussion featured insights from Beth Sanner, former Deputy Director of National Intelligence; Cheryl Steele, former Vice President of Global Security & Resilience (CSO) at Starbucks Coffee Company; and Dale Buckner, CEO and President of Global Guardian.

Their message was unmistakable: terrorism is changing form, not fading away. For global businesses, this isn’t just a security conversation, it’s an operational, reputational and human one. Whether protecting employees, travelers, or brands that have become cultural symbols, organizations must adapt faster than the threat itself. As this evolution accelerates, so too must corporate preparedness, intelligence integration, and global risk strategy.

The New Face of Terrorism: Decentralized, Digitized, and Harder to Predict

Nearly twenty-five years after 9/11, the global terrorism landscape has been redefined. Traditional command structures—once centered around terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda or ISIS—have given way to a diffuse, networked ecosystem of affiliates, criminal proxies and self-radicalized individuals operating across borders and platforms.

Today’s extremists no longer require formal hierarchies or training camps. A smartphone, an encrypted app, and an online grievance can now catalyze violence within days. Recruitment that once took months has compressed into weeks or even days. Often, these groups are on the cutting-edge of more experimental technologies as well. Terrorist groups have become early adopters of using artificial intelligence, cryptocurrencies, encrypted platforms and social media to recruit, radicalize and finance operations rapidly and without much oversight.

The ideological terrain spans jihadism, ethno-nationalism, political radicalism on both the left and the right, and anti-Semitism. These ideologies often merge in hybrid online subcultures that defy traditional classification but share a nihilistic worldview. Conflicts in Gaza, the Sahel, and other regions act as accelerants, creating feedback loops where terrorism both fuels and feeds on instability.

Taken together, these factors create a more diffuse and unpredictable threat landscape. Five defining shifts characterize this new era:

  • Decentralization: The “core” has dissolved. Inspiration now outweighs command.
  • Technological acceleration: AI, cryptocurrency, and social media amplify recruitment and operational capability.
  • Ideological fusion: A convergence of once-separate extremist movements now fuels cross-pollinated violence.
  • State-enabled proxies: Some nations leverage militant or criminal intermediaries to conduct sabotage or cyber-disruption under plausible deniability.
  • Attention deficit: As global focus drifts to new crises, collection and prioritization have slipped, creating dangerous blind spots.

According to Beth Sanner, “the terrorist scene is very, very decentralized. Affiliates from Al Qaeda and ISIS have the power to conduct attacks and inspire lone wolves.” In one example, she explained, “Afghanistan is still a thing, but not because of the Taliban, it's because of ISIS-Khorasan. And the Sahel is the epicenter of global jihad.”

This decentralization makes terrorism more unpredictable and opportunistic than ever. The threat no longer fits neatly into categories of “foreign” or “domestic.” It is both—and everywhere in between.

The Geography of Instability: From the Sahel to the Supply Chain

The geography of terrorism is expanding. It no longer resides solely in failed states or conflict zones: It now intersects directly with trade routes, travel corridors, and commercial operations worldwide.

As Cheryl Steele emphasized, “Even when we are not a target, our proximity to civil unrest or iconic status can create immediate risk scenarios. We must anticipate threats that are indirect but highly disruptive to people and operations.”

For multinational corporations, this diffusion translates to tangible business risk. Terrorism now impacts mobility, logistics, energy corridors, and reputational stability, even in markets once considered secure. Global operations can no longer treat terrorism as a remote contingency; it is a business continuity issue that moves at the speed of information.

Current Hotspots of Terrorism and Corporate Risk

  • Sahel (West Africa): The Sahel remains one of the most dangerous regions, with countries like Burkina Faso and Mali increasingly controlled by militant networks such as JNIM. The deadliest region in recent years, militant groups like JNIM exploit porous borders and weaken governance. Instability is spreading regionally, creating significant challenges for business operations and travel safety.
  • Afghanistan/Central Asia (ISIS-K): Demonstrates global reach with mass-casualty attacks such as the 2024 Moscow concert hall bombing, inspired plots in Europe, and lone-actor activity targeting the U.S.
  • Somalia/Al-Shabaab: Maintains territorial control and increasingly coordinates with Houthi networks, threatening Red Sea shipping lanes and critical supply chains.
  • Syria: More than 8,000 foreign fighters from 50+ countries remain in unstable detention camps. Any erosion of Kurdish or SDF control raises the risk of resurgence and regional spillover.
  • Mexico and Philippines: In Mexico and the Philippines, criminal and terrorist networks pose complex threats to U.S. and Western business interests. Militarized cartels in Mexico operate with paramilitary precision, often using weapons sourced from the United States, creating dangerous conditions even in areas previously considered safe. Similarly, southern Philippine islands harbor active terrorist cells, requiring meticulous travel and operational planning for any business or individual presence.
  • Gray-zone and state-enabled activity: Malign actors leverage criminal proxies for arson, sabotage, assassination, and air-cargo attacks. Iran has been linked to multiple plots targeting the U.S. and Europe, while Russia continues to scale “old methods” with renewed sophistication.

The Global Guardian Terror Index is a visual tool that measures a location’s current propensity for terrorism and its trajectory, providing a snapshot of the terror threat environment to help decision makers better assess the 2026 security landscape. Explore the interactive map as part of our 2026 Global Risk Assessment and download your copy here.

From Battlefield to Boardroom: Why Terrorism Must Return to the Enterprise Risk Agenda

The frequency and geographic reach of terrorism are climbing. The number of affected countries has risen from 58 to 66 – its highest level since 2018. Early 2025 alone saw the New Year’s Day vehicle attack in New Orleans and an April assault on Indian tourists that triggered a four-day India–Pakistan crisis.

As Dale Buckner emphasized, organizations must be defining success in terms of “How can we minimize the level of damage and loss?” With this starting point, he continued, leaders can begin “framing that within your organization – where your footprint is, where your people travel, what your exposure is, and what you're willing to do and not too willing to do as an organization when it comes to safety and security. That's the calculus.”

Leaders can no longer afford to treat terrorism as purely a geopolitical concern. The challenge now is how to build a framework that creates organizational resilience and minimizes impact when the unexpected happens.

Preparedness begins with classification. Executives must recognize terrorism as one of their top five enterprise risks, brief boards accordingly, and establish clear decision authority for crisis response. When an incident occurs, minutes matter, and ambiguity in who leads, decides, or communicates can amplify the damage.

Scenario-based planning is equally critical. Companies should rehearse plausible events: a drone intrusion near a facility, a vehicular attack outside a store, or a viral disinformation surge targeting the brand. These exercises reveal communication gaps, security weaknesses, and unclear chains of command.

Resilience, however, is not built on plans alone. Integrating readiness into enterprise culture is the best way to ensure readiness. Empowered employees who recognize warning signs, know how to report concerns, and trust their leadership response extend the organization’s defensive posture beyond the perimeter. Awareness, coordination, and preparedness save lives—and protect business continuity when disruption strikes. 

The Brand as a Battleground: Managing Symbolism and Misinformation

For globally visible corporations, the risk isn’t always tied to operations—it’s often symbolic. In times of unrest and anti-Western sentiment, multinational brands can become proxies for broader grievances. A logo can transform overnight from a business mark into a political target.

Resilience in this environment requires proactive narrative management. Companies must clearly articulate their local value—such as how they invest in communities, support jobs, and contribute to local economies—before a crisis arises. This preemptive approach, often called “pre-bunking,” builds authenticity and inoculates the organization against disinformation before it spreads. Encouraging employees to share their own stories of community impact further humanizes the brand, strengthening public trust during moments of volatility.

Cheryl Steele remarked that her experience at Starbucks has taught her to ask, “How do you continue to tell the story of who you are?” She continued, “If you are constantly chasing the last media cycle … you're always going to be playing a defensive game and a catch-up. So, it's more about how you get proactive and intentional to try and make ourselves as resilient as possible in the face of counter narratives of which we may have no control.”

Visibility is inevitable. The challenge is to ensure that visibility reflects purpose and credibility, not vulnerability.

The Intelligence Imperative: Monitoring, Anticipating, Responding

In today’s threat environment, vigilance and adaptability must work in tandem. Organizations can no longer rely solely on static threat lists or periodic government alerts. They need dynamic intelligence, behavioral analysis, and rapid situational awareness.

Monitoring the right signals is critical:

  • Behavioral indicators of mobilization or coordination – monitoring patterns of activity, rather than isolated chatter, helps identify emerging threats before they escalate into attacks.
  • Spikes in disinformation or online narratives – sudden increases in online content mentioning your brand, sector, or operating region can signal rising reputational or physical risk.
  •  Local triggers – elections, high-profile court verdicts, national holidays, or protest movements can act as catalysts, making otherwise routine environments more volatile.
  • Regional flashpoints – instability in areas like the Sahel, Gaza, or ISIS-K-controlled zones provides critical context for decisions on travel, logistics, and operational exposure.

Platform-based monitoring is increasingly insufficient as malign actors migrate to encrypted or private networks. Instead, companies must prioritize pattern recognition, cross-platform trend analysis, and intelligence correlation to detect subtle signals of emerging risk.

Preparedness is where intelligence translates into action. Organizations should establish:

  • Clear reporting and escalation frameworks across business units;
  • Intelligence-driven risk reviews tied to travel, operations, and facility management;
  • Hardened physical and digital security measures; and
  • Coordinated communication channels with law enforcement, partners, and global intelligence networks.

The reality is clear: the modern terrorism threat is fast, decentralized, and amplified by technology. Preparedness is no longer about predicting the next attack—it is about ensuring operational resilience and protecting people, assets, and brand reputation when disruption occurs.

Watch the Full Webinar for More Insights

The modern terrorism landscape is fast-moving, diffuse, and technologically accelerated. But with the right intelligence, preparation, and coordination, organizations can stay ahead of emerging threats.

To hear directly from the experts—including operational insights, regional intelligence assessments, and actionable preparedness strategies—watch the full webinar: The Terrorism Surge: Key Trends and Implications for Global Security.

Whether your organization is building its first global crisis plan or refining a mature risk framework, the session offers a critical perspective on where terrorism is headed and how to respond effectively.

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